2026年消费品行业展望：零售新范式

A new regime for retail Intelligencethat moves Economist Intelligence (EIU) operates atthe intersection of macroeconomics andgeopolitics, delivering data-led insightsthat empower financial institutions,corporations and governments to makestrategic decisions for the future.Our coverage across 200+ markets Our solutions Operational Risk Country Analysis Understand the political, policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the globaldynamics that affect your organisation, enabling you Plan effectively with EIU’s expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisablerisk matrices, our service provides you with the toolsneeded to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to Financial Risk Speaker Bureau Gain unparalleled insights into the global financiallandscape. Combining EIU’s market-leading dataand country expertise, our rigorous risk-modellingframework enables you to accurately identify risks to Strengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIU’s experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions, or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political, Contact us for more information The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features, please contact us Hong Kong London New York Economist IntelligenceThe Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street Economist Intelligence900 Third Avenue, 16th FloorNew York Economist Intelligence1301 Cityplaza Four12 Taikoo Wan Road Tel:+1 212 541 0500E-mail:americas@eiu.com Tel:+44 (0)20 7576 8000E-mail:london@eiu.com Tel:+ 852 2585 3888E-mail:asia@eiu.com Gurgaon Dubai Economist Intelligence9th FloorInfinity Tower ADLF Cyber City Economist IntelligencePO Box No - 450056Office No - 1301AAurora Tower Tel:+91 124 6409486E-mail:asia@eiu.com Tel:+971 4 4463 147E-mail:mea@eiu.com Contents What to watch in 2026The year ahead59 What to watch in 2026 •Global retail sales volume will accelerate due to Asian demand andChinese stimulus, but trade wars, inflation and tighter US remittance •Online retail growth faces challenges from the removal of the USdeminimisexemption on small packages, and anticipated similar moves •Food sales will moderate in 2026, constrained by persistent foodprice inflation, new regulations and taxes, and the increasing use of •Demand for clothing and footwear will weaken, as price-consciousconsumers seek out deals or used items. Luxury goods will be moreresilient, but will also see consumers shift to wanting experiences Global retail sales will rise by 1.7% involume terms in 2026, acceleratingfrom 2025 levels as Asian demandpicks up pace. In China, targetedgovernment stimulus will provide amild boost to consumption. However,in the US and Europe the ongoingtrade wars and persistent inflationwill dent consumer confidence andencourage precautionary savings.Tighter immigration rules in theUS–the largest remitter in the With retail demand tepid inmany countries,cost-consciousconsumers will scout for cheaperdeals and retailers will expandtheir offering of private labelsand loyalty scheme discounts.For example, Carrefour (France) ison track to meet its goal of havingprivate labels represent 40% of foodsales by 2026. The popularity of Consumers will remaincautious in most countriesRetail sales volume growth, % Source: EIU.Copyright © The Economist IntelligenceUnit 2025. All rights reserved. Online retailerswill recalibrateexpansion plans In 2026 the EU is likely tofollow suit, ending its customsexemption on goods valued under€150 (US$174), and to charge a€2 (US$2.30) handling fee perindividual e-commerce packagefrom outside the EU. Japan is alsoconsidering an overhaul of the deminimis provision while Chile hasalready done so. Chinese onlineretailers, such as Shein and Temu,are particularly affected, and are Online retail sales will continue tooutpace offline, but will face seriousheadwinds. In particular, many onlineretailers shipping into the US marketwill now be affected by tariffs,following the removal in September2025 of the de minimis exemption,which previously allowed tariff-freeshipment of small packages. This Country Analysis Gain insight into a country's political, policy and economicoutlook with our award-winning forecasts, analysis and data. A global crackdown on imported low-value goods is under way New duties and thresholds are being rolled out mainly by markets with strong trade ties with China Food sales growthwill moderate Consumers will continue to prioritisespending on housing and food, withthe latter accounting for around 18%of total global consumer spending.However, unlike in recent years, foodspending will be one of the slowergrowing spending categories, rising In the US, companies will be underpressure from regulators to eliminatesynthetic food dyes in 2026, whileSouth Korea and Canada will tightennutritional labelling laws. Vietnama