美国投资级最佳投资思路：高期望，更需精选

Great Expectations, Greater SIGNATURE Sector-level dislocations and balance sheet catalysts aretaking center stage, making idiosyncratic stories and creditselection increasingly influential in 2026 positioning. We US Credit StrategyDominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.com Bradford Elliott, CFA+1 212 526 6704bradford.elliott@barclays.com Our strategy team thinks10y BBBs screen as the only clearly decompressed point on thecurve, making them attractive versus As, with media, chemicals, integrateds, food & US Credit Fundamental Peter Troisi+1 212 412 3695peter.troisi@barclays.com On the short side, we recommend selling exposure in names such as DOW, HPQ, OAKSCF,KDP, ZBH, PGR, D (holdco/VEPCo), and SO, along with buying protection in CAG/CPB, wherewe see 10–30bp of widening potential over the next one to six months, driven by sector- Samantha Kost+1 212 526 4007samantha.kost@barclays.com On the long side, we see 15–40bp of tightening potential in select 5–10y and long-datedbonds, including OVV, SRE, CVS (hybrids), BAX, EA, UBER, MU, VST and others, with catalystsranging from balance sheet improvements to ratings momentum and sector-specific Harry Mateer+1 212 412 7903harry.mateer@barclays.com We review the performance of our most recent best ideas from September 2025(see USInvestment Grade Best Ideas: The Calm and the Chaos) and update on related catalysts Priya Ohri-Gupta, CFA+1 212 412 3759priya.ohrigupta@barclays.com Afsah Quadri+1 212 412 2343afsah.quadri@barclays.com Andrew Keches, CFA+1 212 412 5248andrew.keches@barclays.com Srinjoy Banerjee, CFA+1 212 526 3521srinjoy.banerjee@barclays.com CONTENTS Strategy: BBBs in the Belly Look Attractive. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Financials: Tight Valuations, Pockets of Fundamental Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . 8Chemicals: Trough Turnaround Unlikely. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Energy: Pick Your Spots. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Food & Beverage: Positioning for Ongoing Headwinds. . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Strategy: BBBs in the Belly Look Attractive Bradford Elliott, CFA BCI, US | Dominique Toublan BCI, US | Jack Sweeney BCI, US BBBs as a percentage of the index have declined by 6pp in the past three years.In theaftermathof the pandemic, BBBs as a percentage of the US corporate index reached the higheston record (52%), given the onslaught of issuance in 2020, as well as single-A downgrades. Sincethis peak, the portion of BBB debt in the index has dropped 7pp, now comprising 45% of theoverall index, the lowest in a decade. Behind this trend have been the following factors: higher BBB/A ratio is quite compressed.The BBB/A ratio (removing ORCL and WBD from the timeseries) trades at 1.57x, or 33bp, nearly 1 standard deviation inside of its average. Over the pasttwo years, there has been precedent for more compression, but those periods are limited, andthe ratio is trading around the 20th percentile of its range (Figure 4). Overall, BBBs do not look But at the 10y point, the ratio actually looks decompressed (Figure 5).On an LTM basis, therelationship in the belly of the curve trades in the 50th percentile,offeringan entry point atwhich BBB outperformance has yet to play out fully. The 5y point also trades in the 50thpercentile, but as we discuss inShiftingwinds, the 10y pointoffersbetter roll-down prospects. Media, chems, integrated, food & beverage, metals, and retail are the most decompressedin the belly of the curve.Given the attractiveness of the 10y BBB/A ratio, we isolate this pointon the curve to assess howdifferentsectors stack up on an LTM lookback. The aforementionedsectors all trade in at least the 60th percentile of their respective ranges, the outright ratios FIGURE 5. 10y BBB/A Ratio Is Decompressed Ex-WBD, ORCLSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research We highlight opportunities in 10y BBBs in sectors with particularly decompressed BBB/A ratios. •Not rated Underweight by analysts.•In sectors with BBB/A ratio in >50th percentile of range.•Trade wide the average senior 10y bond at its respective ratings notch. Financials: Tight Valuations, Pockets of Fundamental Peter Troisi BCI, US | Justin Moreno BCI, US | Ishika Goyal BCI, US Sell OAKSCF 6.5% of 2029 Horizon: 3 months OAKSCF is a mid-sized, private business development company (BDC) with about $7bn of AUM.It is structured as a perpetual BDC, thereby allowing investors to periodically withdraw theirinvestment from the fund. In 4Q25, it experienced a meaningful increase in outflows to 4.2% ofnet asset value, from 1.4% in 3Q25. Although this outflow was consistent with recent trends atother perpetual BDCs (see Sentiment Bites - Rising Redemptions at Private BDCs), it is thesecond larger outflow from OAKSCF over the past few quarters (4.6% of NAV in 2Q25). As a Upside/Downside BDC valuations tend to be much more sensitive to negative fundamental factors t