美国高收益最佳思路：Back in Black

Back in Black Key points: 1) "Everything rally" puts HY at tightest startingspread since index inception; 2) We outline 29 Overweights,9 Underweights, 2 swaps, 6 term loan trades, and 1 CDStrade. 3) Suggest looking at hybrids over BBs; 4) "K Shaped"HY market w/lower quality tail cheap, skewing index spreads. Corry Short+1 212 526 6253corry.short@barclays.comBCI, US Hale Holden+1 212 412 1524hale.holden@barclays.comBCI, US Overview Paul Chambers+1 713 236 2455paul.d.chambers@barclays.comBCI, US While the market yield of 6.5% provides some cover, we are conscious that 2026 is startingoffatthe tightest spread level since the HY Index's inception. It's possible the rock gods at AC/DC hadit right when they sang "Don't try to push your luck, just get out of the way" in "Back in Black". Shanna Qiu, CFA+ 1 212 526 9232shanna.qiu@barclays.comBCI, US Given the starting point, credit selection and avoiding foot faults is the base line for preventingunderperformance. There are a number of ongoing larger sector trends that we believe willremain drivers, including the structural pressure in chems, AI funding, paper/packaging on thewatch list, and currently lower oil pricing. Scott Grabine+ 1 212 526 1429scott.grabine@barclays.comBCI, US We present our best USD High Yield ideas, including: 1) 29 Overweights/longs; 2)9 Underweights/shorts; 3) two swaps; 4) six term loan trade ideas; and 5) one CDS idea. Whileour list is shorter than it has been in a few quarters, this reflects the need for a very high bar forconviction given the market backdrop. Edward Brucker, CFA+1 212 526 4435edward.brucker@barclays.comBCI, US In the strategy section below, the team suggests playing defense, includingshiftingweights tosecured Bs from CCCs and unsecured Bs. We also suggest considering corporate hybrids or BDCsas a an alternative to (tight) trading BBs. Finally, we continue to prefer loans over bonds. JeffHarlib+1 212 412 6952jeffrey.harlib@barclays.comBCI, US The recommendations from our prior Best Ideas report (September 2025) produced totalreturns of 40bp between September 17 and January 9, while the the High Yield marketproduced total returns of 179bp. Our basket of short recommendations produced total returnsof 258bp over the same period (Figure 17). David Hargreaves+1 212 526 6136david.hargreaves@barclays.comBCI, US Christophe Boulanger+44 (0) 20 3555 1984christophe.boulanger@barclays.comBarclays, UK Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Strategy Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4US Retail, Consumer Products, Food & Beverage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10US Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12US Financials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13US Healthcare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15US Media & Entertainment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18US Metals & Mining, Chemicals, Packaging, and Transport. . . . . . . . . . . 19US Telecom & Cable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21US Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23US Gaming and Leisure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24European Autos and Auto Parts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Strategy Overview Corry Short BCI, US Spreads remain historically tight While it took a few extra days for the index to rally into the YE25 target range of 240-260bp wehad forecast in October, the Santa rally creates a less comfortable starting point for 2026. Infact, this is the tightest starting spread to any year since the high yield index's inception (Figure2). However, while the starting point implies a fairly weak forward-looking returns backdrop(Figure 3), the high yield index's YTW near 6.5% is only 20bp inside of its median since 2010,creating an environment that is historically relatively constructive for returns (Figure 4). We expect spreads to widen this year, and our forecast for the index is around 50-80bp ofwidening by year-end, to 310-340bp, corresponding to a total return forecast of 4.5-5.5% (HYOutlook: Opportunity amid asymmetry). Key drivers behind this expectation are asofteninginthe supply/demand technical and a modest erosion in corporate fundamentals. Technicals in the driver's seat in 2026 Throughout last year, the high yield and leveraged loan markets were highly technicals-driven.In both, slow index growth amid lackluster net supply (Figure 5), alongside healthy coupondistributions (Figure 6), kept spread volatility muted