工作的未来：人工智能走向实体化

AI gets physical SIGNATURE AI's next frontier is physical: humanoid robots – robots inhuman form – are stepping out of the lab and into the realworld. They could take on the tough, repetitive jobs humansincreasingly avoid in manufacturing, agriculture and Thematic FICC Research Zornitsa Todorova(i)+44 (0) 20 3134 4561zornitsa.todorova@barclays.comBarclays, UK Carlos Eduardo Garcia Martinez(i)+1 212 523 7426carlosed.garciamartinez@barclays.com Humanoid robots: where physical power meets cognitive intelligence.Automation beganwith machines doing the heavylifting.Then came AI, adding a layer of intelligence. Now, •Demographic headwinds are creating demand.Ageing populations, labour shortages, andshiftingworker preferences are opening the door for humanoids to take on essential – yetoftenundesirable – roles in manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, healthcare, and hospitality. •The “three Bs” – brains, brawn and batteries – underpin the humanoid supplychain.Advances across all three have cut unit costs by 30x in the past decade. Of these,brawn – the robotic “muscles” converting energy into motion – is the centrepiece, driving •Humanoids are cars in miniature.Each robot packs thousands of high-precisioncomponents and complex supply chains – mirroring the complexity of automotivemanufacturing. This overlap means decades of expertise in actuators, gears, and bearings can •Physical AI could be the next big investment theme.The humanoid market, just $2-3billion today, could surge to $200 billion by 2035, according to our estimates. Thisshiftcreatesa powerful tailwind for industrials – bringing actuator makers, automation leaders, and Will humanoids be the growth engine of the 21st In 1961, General Motors introduced Unimate, the world’s first industrial robot, to weld car partson its assembly line – a moment that marked the beginning of large-scale physical automation.Fast forward to 2017, when Google’s AlphaGo defeated Ke Jie in the strategy game Go,showcasing the power of cognitive AI. Now, entering 2026, the frontier isshiftingagain: BMW’s Spartanburg plant put humanoid robots from Figure on the line, loading sheet-metal parts into Why it matters: demographics and demand Three demographicshiftsare reshaping the global economy. First,ageing populationsarecreating headwinds as the share of people aged 65 and above rises from 10% today to 16% by2050, while working-age cohorts stagnate. Second,urbanization is accelerating, with nearly70% of the world projected to live in cities by midcentury – concentrating talent in urban hubs The result is a growing mismatch between economic demand and workforce supply in criticalsectors such as manufacturing and logistics, agriculture, and healthcare. While many roles inthese industries are already automated with industrial robots, others that are less structuredand require human-like dexterity and adaptability have resisted automation.Our view: Why humanoids? Humanoid robots need a human form because the world is built for humans.From navigating narrow hallways to climbing stairs or opening doors, a human-like shape lets robotsoperate in existing environments without costly redesigns. Take a sorting centre: it is a fast-moving environment with packages of varying sizes, conveyor belts, shelving, and equipmentdesigned for human reach and movement. A wheeled or single-purpose robot might excel at The bigshift Until recently, however, these robots lacked one critical skill: understanding context.In the real world, that meant mistakes as absurd as watering a person instead of aplant, struggling to identify transparent surfaces, or confusing solid objects with flimsy ones.Thanks to advances in AI, humanoids are now learning to read situations and act accordingly –making them far more scalable than fleets of specialized machines. The second challenge was The "three Bs": brains, brawn and batteries Our analysis highlights what we call the"three Bs" – brains, brawn and batteries– as the coretechnologies behind humanoids and their main cost drivers.Brainscover cognitive AI modelsand physical compute;brawnrefers to the mechanical systems for movement, dominated byactuator components including electric motors, gears, bearings, and sensors; andbatteries supply energy. Of these, the brawn – the "muscles" converting energy into motion – is thecentrepiece of the humanoid architecture, accounting for about 50% of total humanoid Cost collapse and investors taking notice Breakthroughs across the "three Bs" have driven a dramatic collapse in costs – by ourestimates, a 30x drop over the past decade,from around $3mn to roughly $100K per unit.Ashumanoids are becoming more economically viable, investors are taking notice. Venture capitalfunding hit $8.8 billion in Q2 2025, up 15x since 2017. The valuation of Figure, one of the leadingstart-ups in the humanoids space, jumped from $2.6 billion to $39 billion in just seven months,and mentions of “humanoid” robots have risen 10x s