全球消费品：快速消费品行业的新规则

The new rules of the FMCG game The old business model in Staples is broken and won't goback to pre-Covid norms. The rules have changed, and itrequires a more agile mindset to get ahead of consumers andchannels, which have never changed faster. The winners willconstructively disrupt themselves. We set out the 10 newrules. European Consumer StaplesNEUTRAL European Consumer Staples Warren Ackerman+44 (0)20 3134 1903warren.ackerman@barclays.comBarclays, UK Laurence Whyatt+44 (0)20 7773 5324laurence.whyatt@barclays.comBarclays, UK Listen Alex Sloane+44 (0)20 3555 0645alexander.sloane@barclays.comBarclays, UK The 10 New Rules of the FMCG Game 1.Understanding Right to Win2.Take more risk - Play to Win rather than Not to Lose3.Volume, Mix and Gross Margin are King4.R&D is the new A&P5.Health is wealth6.Redefining Emerging Markets7.Getting ahead of channelshift- Perfecting the 3 Os of Omnichannel, Online &Offlinestrategies8.Embracing the new advertising model using social media and influencers9.Developing next-generation AI-driven supply chains10.Consistency, Consistency, Consistency Imogen McCurley+44 (0)20 3555 4999imogen.mccurley@barclays.comBarclays, UK Ashutosh Jain+91 (0)22 6175 1452ashutosh.jain@barclays.comBarclays, UK Varshil Modi+91 (0)22 6175 3995varshil.modi@barclays.comBarclays, UK Abhishek Gokhale+91 (0)22 6175 1952abhishek.gokhale@barclays.comBarclays, UK U.S. FoodAndrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668andrew.lazar@barclays.comBCI, US U.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, US The Story in 6 Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3The Old Rules of the FMCG Game. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51. Understanding Right to Win. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132. Take more risk - Play to Win rather than Not to Lose. . . . . . . . . . . . . .193. Volume, Mix and Gross Margin are King. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254. R&D is the new A&P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335. Health is wealth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456. Redefining Emerging Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587. Getting ahead of channelshift- Perfecting the 3 O's Omnichannel,Online &Offlinestrategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738. Embracing the new advertising model using social media andinfluencers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .839. Developing next-generation AI-driven supply chains. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9310. Consistency, Consistency, Consistency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Connecting the new rules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 The Story in 6 Charts FIGURE 1. Sector multiple at multi-decade lows because of theperception it has been disrupted Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research FIGURE 5. Health is Wealth: GLP1 and general wellbeing trends haveled to‘healthy’ food outperforming packaged foods FIGURE 6. It's not just consumers and channels changing fast, it isalso supply chains. The 4th industrial revolution, ‘AI’, will be agamechanger The Old Rules of the FMCG Game For many decades, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) model worked well because it wascentred around steady, compounding growth and value creation through scale, brand equityand incremental investment. This model was supported by a linear path to purchase byconsumers where the FMCG leaders relied heavily on building strong brand loyalty throughmass advertising typically via TV, coupled with steady product innovation and broaddistribution networks. The underlying assumption was investing in brands would drive volumegrowth and pricing power, allowing earnings to compound at a mid- to high- single-digit rate.The big FMCG companies with the biggest market shares had moats that were a self-fulfilling prophecy. They protected already high market shares which resulted inpredictable top-line and earnings growth. Large players leveraged their scale in procurement, built global supply chains and had hugeeconomies of scale in manufacturing distribution.This worked in stable markets withconsistent consumer demand. The bigger companies could simply out-muscle and out-spend smaller ones.They were able to crowd out smaller players (aka ankle biters) and startups and were able to dominate shelf listings with the dominant multiple retailers who wantedto work with dependable partners. The model waseffectivein an era of rising disposableincomes, population growth and limited growth from disruptors.This was pretty much howthe Staples model worked sinceafterWW2 until the turn of the century. Since the early 2010s, the m