中国汽车：长远视角：加速全球扩张

by2030E,upfromc.4mnunits in2025.Chinesebrandsoutperformedourpreviousforecasts,growingtheirmarketshareoutsideChinafrom4%in2023to6%in2025E(vs.5%previouslyprojected).Wenowadoptamorebullish13%market share for2030E,up from 10% previously.Over the longerterm,Chinese brands'overseas volume couldpotentially reach c.13-15mn units (c.20% share), contingent on regional EV adoption,stablegeopolitical conditions,and sustainedmarketshare gains.ChineseOEMshaveexceededourforecastsfromtwoyearsagoinoverseas +85221232606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.comEthanXu +85221232634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com +85221664805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com markets,withtraction surpassing ourbase caseandaligningwiththebull case.OutperformancespansbothIcEandEVsegments.ICEsalessurpassedexpectationsmarket share and scrappage tax impacts, Chinese brands maintained resilience.Rapid ICEexpansion also occurred in Turkeyand Poland. In Eastern&Central Europe,ChinesePVmarketsharegrewfrom17% in2023to24% in2025; wenowforecastamorebullish37% in 2030E, up from 30%, driven by both ICE and EV offerings. from Japanese, Korean,and Europeanmassmarketbrands.InMiddle East&Africa,Chinese brands'share rosefrom10% in2023to17% in2025; wenowforecast 30% in2030E,up from 24%.In LATAM, share increased from 7% in 2023to 13% in 2025; we als0forecast30%in2030E,upfrom24%.Chinesebrandsarealsodominatingthesmallbutgrowing EV market in LATAM. projected),partly driven byaffordable,competitive Chinese EVs that took sharefromJapanesebrands.ASEANPVsharerosefrom5% in2023to14% in2025;wenowforecast35% in2030E.Similarly,inOceania,Chinesebrandsgainedsharefrom Japanesebrands,increasingfrom12%in2023to17% in2025; weforecast30% in2030E. In Western Europe,geopoliticaltensionsremain a concernbutwe arecautiouslyoptimistic.It is a sizablemarket and even modestmarket shares would contributemeaningfullytoChineseOEMs.2025Esales exceeded initialforecasts,mainly driven bystrongICE sales.Proposedtariff relaxations contingent onminimumpricethresholdsincreaseouroptimism.(LINK)Conversely,wemaintainalowpotentialviewonJapan&Korea,SouthAsia,andtheU.S.marketsforChineseOEMs. We are increasingly confident in Chinese brands'international prospects.ICEtraction is stronger than expected, and despite EV policy delays in some regions, price-competitive ChineseEVsarepoisedtogain ground.PHEVs remain a competitivesustain dominance.They hold key advantages in EV powertrain techand cost efficiency butface challengesfromgeopolitical tensions,brand perception,and limited localexpertise.Webelieve localization-proven by Japanese andKorean brands-will mitigatethese risks,while hurdles inmarket knowledge, branding,andafter-sales canbe overcome.BYD is INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS competitiveelectric vehicles,encompassing bothBEVs andPHEVs. WeforecastChinesebrands'overseassalesvolumetoreachc.8-10mnunitsby2030EASEAN: Japanese brands currently hold c.50% share, down from c.70%,as rising EV adoption boosts Chinese brands..LATAM: A relatively fragmented market, where Chinese brands are leading EV and growing ICE.Middle East &Africa:Chinesebrands aregaining significant ICE share,cutting intomass-market European brands...11Oceania:Chinesebrandsgainingsharefrom Japanesebrands,withstrongtraction in EVmarket...12East & Central Europe: Stronghold in Russia, and expanding in Turkey and Poland..13West Europe: Cautious optimism, sizeablemarket withmodest share gain assumptions from Asian and U.S.automakers....15Localizingproductiontomitigategeopoliticaltensions. SUMMARYWenowforecast Chinesebrands'overseas sales volume to reach c.8-10mn units by2030E,up from c.4mn units in 2025, implyinga17-23%25-30ECAGR.Ourupdatedforecastexceedsthepreviousbaseandbullcaseprojectionsof 6mnand9mnunits,respectively.Overthe longerterm, we anticipate growth to c.13-15mn units in overseasmarkets.These ranges reflectvarying assumptions on EV adoption and Chinese brands'market shares across regions. (Exhibit 1) Chineseautobrands haveoutperformed ourforecasts fromtwoyears ago in overseasmarkets,withtraction exceedingourbase case andaligningwiththemore optimisticbullcase.ChineseOEMs outperformedacross bothICEand EV.ICEvehicleperformancesurpassed expectations,drivenbymoreaggressivemarketentrystrategiesfromChinese OEMsthan initiallyanticipated.Also,EV sales penetration in certain regions,suchasASEAN,exceededforecasts, dueto the introductionofaffordable,competitive Chinese EV models. Consequently, Chinese brands have gained overall market share in the passengervehicle segment. Looking ahead, we are increasingly confident in Chinese brands' international prospects. Relevant researchhighlights 12 Dec 2025-China Autos Export Tracker:Q32025 accelerates with +23% yoy in shipment; PHEV leads the charge, surging+242% yoy4 Oct 2024-Chinese Autos: Sizing the market-Deep dive into Chinese brands'overseas potential by region30Sep2024-"China 2.0":Chinese Autos-The Ascendanceof ChineseEVs,from Local toGlobal8 Aug 2024-Chinese Autos:Further thoughts on EU's countervailing tariffs on Made-in