为人工智能热潮融资：从现金流到债务

Financing the AI boom: from cash flowsto debt Iñaki Aldasoro,Sebastian Doerr andDaniel Rees BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to timeby other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and aretechnical in character. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. The authors thank Jon Frost, Pablo The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2026. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt Key takeaways •Investment related to artificial intelligence (AI) is surging – both in nominal amounts and as ashare of GDP – and currently accounts for a substantial share of economic growth. •The size of anticipated investment needs will require firms to shift the source of financing from •While macroeconomic and financial stability risks from the AI boom appear moderate, theboom’s sustainability hinges on AI firms meeting high earnings expectations. The fact that Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) appear set to reshape economies, industries and financialmarkets and AI firms have been a major driver of equity market developments over the past year (BIS(2025)). Yet AI-related innovations demand not only groundbreaking research but also substantialinvestment in infrastructure. At the heart of this transformation lies a surge in capital expenditures to buildthe physical infrastructure for AI, eg data centres, and related technological infrastructure such as The need to finance these investments is causing a shift in sourcing the financing from cash flows todebt. Leading firms in the information technology (IT) sector have historically financed much of theirinvestments internally out of operating cash flows. However, the scale of current and anticipated AI-relatedinvestment needs is now so vast that firms are seeking external sources of funding. They are therefore This Bulletin explores the AI investment boom. It first focuses on the boom’s macroeconomicdimensions. It then examines the evolving financing landscape and highlights the interplay between thesurging demand for AI infrastructure and the financial mechanisms that support it, in particular private The macroeconomic dimension of AI investment The rise of AI has triggered a wave of investment in the digital infrastructure needed to support itsdevelopment and deployment. Much of this investment has occurred in the United States (Haag (2025)). of investment. Accordingly, in this Bulletin we focus on AI-related investment in the United States. Thetrends we document are likely to exist in other economies too, albeit to a lesser extent.1 AI-related investment takes a number of forms. The most direct is expenditures on data centres, whichhouse the specific IT infrastructure needed to train, deploy and deliver AI applications and services. Suchexpenditures include the construction costs of building the physical facilities, as well as spending on ITand other electrical equipment needed for their operation, including servers and networking equipment.Beyond data centres, AI-related investment can also encompass IT manufacturing facilities, which produce Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; US Census Bureau; International Energy Agency; authors’ calculations. The macroeconomic impact of the AI investment boom has become increasingly relevant. Since 2022,AI-related investment has accounted for a rising share of US GDP (Graph 1.A). Initially, this investmentreflected spending on domestic semiconductor manufacturing, spurred in part by the passage of the USCreating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act as well as by a desire to area).2By mid-2025, expenditures on IT manufacturing facilities and data centres (including bothequipment and construction costs) were equivalent to 1% of GDP. This, in turn, has seen total IT-relatedinvestment, including investment in other IT equipment and software, rise to 5% of GDP, exceeding its AI-related investment has emerged as an important driver of GDP growth in the United States. Froma negligible contribution before 2022, expenditures on semiconductor manufacturing facilities and datacentres have contributed on average 0.4 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth over the subsequent threeyears (Graph 1.B).3Total IT investment, which also includes spending by businesses on equipment andsoftware to facilitate AI use, has accounted for almost half of GDP growth in recent quarters, helping to The financing dimension of the AI boom The increasing importance of AI is already evident in the financial strategies of major IT firms. Firms thatare currently driving the AI investment boom have historically operated with