2026年野村东盟+会议：投资者观点

Asia Insights 21 January 2026 Economics - Asia ex-Japan 2026 Nomura ASEAN+ Conference: Whatinvestors think Research Analysts Asia Economics In our ASEAN+ Conference in Kuala Lumpur on 19-21 January, we conducted quick pollsof the audience on several key topics during the sessions when we presented our views Jing Wang - NIHKjing.wang@nomura.com+852 2252 1011 The Fed:A majority of respondents (52%) expect two rate cuts by the Fed this year(Figure 1), in line with Nomura’s forecasts. Another 25% of respondents see 75bp of Aurodeep Nandi - NFASLaurodeep.nandi@nomura.com+91 22 4037 4087 China:All respondents expect China’s PPI to remain in deflationary territory in 2026(Figure 2), though a plurality expect it to improve to between -1.0% and -2.0% (2025: -2.6%), in line with Nomura’s view (-1.2%). Respondents appear to have become morecautious on China’s inflation outlook since our survey in December in Singapore andHong Kong, as its appears none of them expect China to escape deflation in 2026 India:Respondents were split almost evenly between expecting an additional 25bpcut by the RBI versus no further cuts, with the former camp holding a narrow majority.This outcome is broadly similar to our surveys in December, although a larger share of Malaysia:Most respondents (71%) expect BNM to leave its policy rate unchanged at2.75% this year (Figure 4). Only 16% agree with our view that BNM will hike by 25bpto 3.00% by Q4. Based on discussions with local clients on the sidelines of the Indonesia:A majority of respondents expect the government to breach the 3% ofGDP fiscal deficit ceiling this year (Figure 5). We find this result somewhat surprising,as it implies investors likely expect a change in the legislation to relax the ceiling thisyear. Nonetheless, this indicates fiscal concerns are becoming more widespread, Production Complete: 2026-01-21 05:51 UTC Source: Nomura Global Economics Source: Nomura Global Economics Source: Nomura Global Economics Source: Nomura Global Economics Source: Nomura Global Economics Appendix A-1 This report has been produced by Nomura Singapore Ltd. (NSL), Singapore.SeeDisclaimersfor Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification We, Euben Paracuelles, Jing Wang and Aurodeep Nandi, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflectour personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura Group research is available onwww.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, LSEG.Important disclosures may be read athttp://go.nomuranow.com/research/m/Disclosuresor requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, aportion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report arenot registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule Nomura Global Financial Products Inc. (NGFP) Nomura Derivative Products Inc. (NDP) and Nomura International plc. (NIplc) are registered withthe Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association (NFA) as swap dealers. NGFP, NDPI, and NIplc are Disclaimers This publication contains material that has been prepared by the Nomura Group entity identified on page 1 and, if applicable, with thecontributions of one or more Nomura Group entities whose employees and their respective affiliations are specified on page 1 or identifiedelsewhere in this publication. The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. and its affiliates and subsidiaries including:(a) Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. ('NSC') Tokyo, Japan, (b) Nomura Financial Products Europe GmbH (‘NFPE’), Germany, (c) Nomura International plc ('NIplc'), UK, (d) Nomura Securities International, Inc. ('NSI'), New York, US, (e) Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd.(‘NIHK’), Hong Kong, (f) Nomura Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Ltd. (‘NFIK’), Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registered with theKorea Financial Investment Association ('KOFIA') can be found on the KOFIA Intranet athttp://dis.kofia.or.kr, (g) Nomura Singapore Ltd. (‘NSL’),Singapore (Registration number 197201440E, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore) (h) Nomura Australia Ltd. (‘NAL’), Australia(ABN 48 003 032 513), regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission ('ASIC') and holder of an Australian financial services For reports with respect to Indian public companies or authored