自动：弱4Q25销量可能导致盈利不及预期

Weak 4Q25 salesmay lead to earning miss We maintain our China PV sales volume growthforecasts for2026 on bothretail and wholesale basis after weaker-than-expected Nov and Dec sales.We revise down our 2026 NEV sales volume slightly, as the new trade-in China Auto Sector Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk We are of the view that weaker-than-expected 4Q25 sales volume may resultin earnings miss for some automakers. We revise down 4Q25E earningsforecastsfor Great Wall, Xpeng, Leapmotor and GAC. Nevertheless, we stillexpect Xpeng to break even and Leapmotor to achieve all-time high net profitin 4Q25E. We reviseup our 4Q25E earnings forecastsfor BYD, NIO and LiAuto. Yet, we still project NIO and Li Auto to post net losses in 4Q25E. Wemaintain our earnings forecast for Geely in both 4Q25E and FY26E. Geelyremains our top pick in the automaker sector given its earnings visibility andattractive valuation. We believe BYD may have more positive catalysts forshare price in 1Q26than its peers. We believe the possible battery price hike WenjingDOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk We maintain our PV sales volume growthforecasts for2026.2025ended with weak retail sales volumesin Nov and Dec, leading to a 0.7%YoY decline for China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume. Thatalso reflects subsidies’ significant impact on China’s PV sales volume.Weak sales in Nov and Dec have made investors worry about salesgrowth in 2026. On the other hand, continued trade-in subsidies (with We lower 2026 NEV market share forecast slightly.Although bothNEV retail and wholesale volumes in Nov and Dec 2025 were slightlylower than our prior forecasts, we lower our NEV market share forecastby 1.8ppts in 2026onboth retail (from 61.8% to 60.0%) and wholesale(from59.2%to 57.4%)basis,mainly due to the reduced trade-insubsidies for cheaper NEVs. In other words, we now project NEV retail We expect Geely’s gross margin to widen QoQ in 4Q25.Unlike mostof its peers, we expect Geely’s ASP to rise QoQ with improved modelmix in 4Q25E. We project Geely’s revenue to rise 17% QoQ to all-timehigh again in 4Q25E. More importantly, we expect better product mix andnarrowing discounts to lift Geely’s 4Q25E gross margin to 17.7%. Weproject its net profit to rise 13% QoQ to RMB4.3bn with limited forexvolatilityin 4Q25E.That implies a net profit per vehicle of aboutRMB5,000 in 4Q25E, similar to the 3Q25 level, as we take year-endbonus and other expenses into account. Related Reports:“China Auto Sector-2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match”–5 Dec2025 We revise down our FY26E sales volume by 0.6% to 3.4mn units, slightlylower than its sales target of 3.45mn units. Our downwardrevision wasmainly for its small BEV Starwish. We reiterate our previous argumentthat better product mix and larger export volume could lift its gross Xpeng to break even in 4Q25E.Although Xpeng’s sales volume in4Q25 was below its previous guidance, we still expect it to break even atthe net level. We project its revenue to rise 4% QoQ and gross marginto widen by 0.4ppts QoQ in 4Q25E amid better product mix. We alsoexpect its combined SG&A and R&D ratio to narrow by 0.3ppts QoQ,which could lead to an operating loss of RMB374mn in 4Q25E on ourestimates. Therefore, we estimate Xpeng’s net profit to be RMB79mn in Although Xpeng may face a net loss again in 1Q26E, we expect it to turnprofitable in full-year 2026 with a sales volume forecast of 0.58mn units.We project profit before tax to be RMB1.8bn in FY26E with a grossmargin of 18.3% (-0.3ppts YoY) and a combined SG&A and R&D ratioof 19.7% (-4.4ppts). We estimate itsnet profit to be RMB3.1bn in FY26Ewith a tax credit of RMB1.3bn. Unlikely for NIO to break even in 4Q25E despite an all-time highsales volume.We project NIO’s 4Q25E revenue to surge 59% QoQamid a 43% QoQ growth in sales volume. We also expect its grossmargin to widen by 3.5ppts QoQ to 17.4% in 4Q25E, the highest since4Q21. Despite that, we still estimate a net loss of RMB1.5bn in 4Q25E,as we believe its SG&A ratio would still be higher than its peers. That We lower our FY26E sales volume forecast for NIO by 30,000 units to0.47mn units, as our previous argument appears to be more apparentnow: theOnvo L90may have hit a sales volume peak in Oct 2025. Westill expect a net loss of RMB3.9bn in FY26E, but much lower thanRMB17.2bn in FY25E. We reaffirm our previous argument thatan annual Li Auto may extend its net loss into 4Q25E.We project Li Auto’s4Q25E revenue to rise 4% QoQ, despite a 17% QoQ growth in salesvolume, as we expect its vehicle average selling price (ASP) tofall 11%QoQ amid worse product mix and wider discounts. Such factors couldalso drag Li Auto’s gross margin to 16.7% in 4Q25E based on ourestimates. We expect both SG&A and R&D expenses to be aroundRMB2.8-2.9bn in 4Q25E, or about 10% of revenue. That would lead toan operating loss of RMB643mn and a net loss of RMB112mn, on our