2026年全球价值链展望：统筹协调企业与国家敏捷性

I N S I G H TR E P O R T Contents ForewordExecutive summary1 Beyond legacy supply chains1.1 Orchestrating supply chains for optionality and growth1.2 The C-suite’s strategic shift: From supply chain executionto value orchestration2 A corporate playbook for structural agility in supply chains2.1 Strategic imperatives for building adaptive, future-readysupply chains2.2 Catalysts for change: Foundational readiness for adaptive,responsive supply chains2.3 Mastering the playbook: A system to build structurally agilemanufacturing and supply networks3 A policy blueprint for adaptive industrial ecosystems3.1 Policy levers for competitive industrial ecosystems3.2 Institutional considerations for policy execution3.3 The Manufacturing and Supply Chain Readiness NavigatorConclusionContributorsEndnotes346681010161819202930313235 DisclaimerThis document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Kristian HongPartner and AmericasStrategic Operations and Kiva AllgoodManaging Director, The past year has confirmed what many leadershad sensed: global supply chains have entereda new era of structural volatility. In 2025 alone,tariff escalations between major economies havereshuffled over $400 billion in trade flows to date(and growing),1while disruptions in the Red Sea andPanama Canal have driven container shipping costsup 40% year on year.2Meanwhile, InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) data shows manufacturingoutput across advanced economies at its weakestgrowth since 2009.3At the same time, artificialintelligence (AI) and automation are redrawing This white paper builds on a multi-year collaborationbetween the World Economic Forum and Kearneythat has traced this transformation step by step.In 2023, we identified the structural forces rewiringglobal value chains.6In 2024, we examined howleading manufacturers are redesigning their supply “The Global Value Chains Outlook 2026” continuesthis trajectory. Drawing on insights from over100 consultations with industry, governmentand academic leaders, along with survey datafrom more than 300 global executives and caseanalyses, this report offers a dual playbook for These are not isolated shocks – they signal astructural rewiring of globalization. The linear modelof “produce anywhere, deliver everywhere” hasfractured into regional systems balancing efficiencywith resilience. Geopolitics, energy transition andtechnological acceleration now move in tandem, The objective is not to predict the next disruption,but to help leaders design systems that thrive onit. In an age when supply has become the definingconstraint and policy the new design variable,success will belong to those who treat uncertainty Executive summary Amid rising fragmentation and technologicalchange, business and government must Global supply chains stand at a historic inflectionpoint. After decades defined by scale, costoptimization and globalization, a new era hasemerged – shaped by fragmentation, systemicconstraints and continuous disruption. Theworld has shifted from predictable integration tostructural volatility. The assumptions that oncemade supply chains efficient – institutional stability, government and academic leaders, survey datafrom over 300 global executives and real-worldcase examples. It offers adual playbookto –For the private sector:A strategic guide toorchestrate operations with foresight, agility and –For the public sector:A policy blueprint tobuild the enabling environment where adaptive, Five interlocking structural forces are redefiningthe outlook for global supply chains. Slowing anduneven growth, driven by inflation, tighter capitaland widening divergence, is forcing companies The “Global Value Chains Outlook 2026” buildson a multi-year collaboration between the WorldEconomic Forum and Kearney and draws insights Fragmentation and geopolitical volatility areaccelerating as trade barriers, industrial policyand ongoing conflicts fracture globalizationinto competing blocs anchored by the UnitedStates (US), China and the European Union (EU).Technological acceleration, led by advances in AI, 2.To build distributed scale, not concentratedscale:Constructing modular, technology-enabled networks that balance efficiency with 3.To design optionality for growth, notredundancy for risk mitigation:Embeddingoptionality, flexibility and intelligence to capture Forpolicy-makers, this report introduces a policyblueprin