理解交通弹性：评估方法和工具（英）2025

Jing Xiong,Simona Sulikova,Frederico Ferreira Fonseca Pedroso, © 2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Some rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in thiswork and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, orliability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions setforth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes, and other information shown in this work Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Jing Xiong, Simona Sulikova, Frederico Ferreira FonsecaPedroso, Oceane Keou. 2025. “Understanding Transport Resilience: Assessment Approaches and Tools.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e Cover image: © Image by starline on FreepikCover design and text layout: Duina Reyes Table of Contents Acknowledgments Abbreviations Executive Summary 1.Introduction 2.Resilience AssessmentMethodology and Tools 3.Case Studies 3.1 Kyrgyz Republic and Nigeria: GRI Application3.2 Pakistan: HARMA Application3.3 Brazil: Implementation of a Road Network Resilience 4.Conclusion, and a Look AheadReferencesAppendixes List of Figures Figure ES.1 A Decision Tree for Choosing the GRI or HARMA Model.......................................................................5Figure 3.1 Exposure to Landslides in the Kyrgyz Republic........................................................................................14Figure 3.2 Roads Exposed to a 100-Year Flood in Nigeria.........................................................................................16Figure D.1 Proportion of Roads Exposed to a 100-Year Flood in 2050 in Nigeria.................................................45Figure D.2 Repair Costs in Nigeria, by Road Type.......................................................................................................46 List of Tables Table 2.1 An Overview of Two Resilience Analysis Tools............................................................................................12Table A1.1 Selection of Available Flood Models with Global Coverage.................................................................31 List of Boxes Box A1.1 A Summary of Model Details and Real-World Examples of Five Analytical Steps................................36 Acknowledgments The preparation of this report was led by Jing Xiong (Senior Transport Specialist) at the WorldBank. It benefited from contributions from Simona Sulikova (Consultant), Frederico FerreiraFonseca Pedroso (Transport Specialist), Oceane Keou (Senior Transport Specialist), Samuel Blackwell Heroy (Consultant), and Ali Mostafavi (Consultant).This work has benefited from the significant feedback of World Bank colleagues including Stephane Hallegatte (Chief Climate Economist), Paolo Avner (Senior Economist), Nobuhiko Daito (Senior TransportSpecialist), Maria Carolina Monsalve (Lead Economist), He He (Economist),Xavier Espinet Alegre(Consultant), Cecilia M. Briceno-Garmendia (Lead Economist), Domingo Peñalver Rojo (Consultant),Marta Pertierra Rodriquez (Consultant), Carles Raimat Quintana (Consultant), Mohammad Dehghani(Consultant), Ahmed Al Qabany (Senior Transport Specialist), Ajara Sompo Ceesay (Senior Transport This work was carried out under the leadership of Nicolas Peltier (Global Director), Binyam Reja(Practice Manager), Said Dahdah (Acting Practice Manager), and Jane Jamieson (Program Manager). Funding for this report was kindly provided by the Quality Infrastructure Investment, a partnershipbetween the World Bank and the government of Japan, supporting green, resilient, and inclusive Finally, the report was edited by Fayre Makeig with graphic design by Duina Reyes, under the leadershipof Jonathan Davidar (Senior Knowledge Management and Learning Officer). Faustina Chande (Program Abbreviations *All currency values are presented in US dollars, unless otherwise specified. Executive Summary Road networks are critical development lifelines, enabling the movement of people, goods,and essential services and underpinning economic growth and social well-being. Yet thesenetworks are incre