对新兴和发展中经济体的投资（英）

Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies Amat AdarovM. Ayhan KoseDana Vorisek Policy Research Working Paper11282 Abstract The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key devel-opmentobjectives amid slowing growth and risingmacroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the numberof job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls con-tinuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the casefor a significant investment push has never been stronger.Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets anddeveloping economies has eroded. Since the global financialcrisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace inthe 2000s, with both public and private investment weak- tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels con-tinue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum willrequire ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen insti-tutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen tradeand investment integration—the foundations of a sup-portive business climate. At the same time, internationalcooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment toa predictable system of cross-border trade and investmentflows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sus- The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies Amat Adarov, M. Ayhan Kose, and Dana Vorisek1 Keywords:investment;gross fixed capital formation; private investment; public investment; foreign directinvestment;structural reforms; economic growth. I.Introduction Policy makers around the world are searching for ways to boost growth and create jobs—andinvestment lies at the heart of that effort. A higher investment growth rate is consistently linked tofaster productivity and output growth, as more capital per worker fuels innovation and efficiency.2History shows that countries experiencing rapid investment growth often enjoy powerful outputgrowth spurts, accompanied by job creation and broad macroeconomic gains. In fact, investment Investment, or gross fixed capital formation, serves at least three critical macroeconomic anddevelopment functions. It is the foundation of long-term growth, a powerful engine of job creation, •Foundation of long-term economic growth.Investment is akin to a barometer conveying howmuch of an economy’s output is dedicated to the creation and maintenance of productivecapacity, rather than immediate consumption. Inemerging markets and developing economies(EMDEs), investment has contributed about one-third of growth since the start of the 21stcentury, and more than half of potential output growth (figures 1.A and 1.B). Sustainedincreases in capital stock allow firms to expand production, adopt new technologies, and createconditions for higher productivity. Without renewed investment momentum, EMDEs will •An essential ingredient for development progress.The world faces urgent needs for climate-resilient infrastructure, reliable electricity and water systems, and improved health andeducation facilities. One-quarter of people in the world lack access to safely managed drinkingwater and more than two-fifths do not have safely managed sanitation facilities, while about740 million people lack access to electricity (IEA 2025; WHO and UNICEF 2022). These figuresare considerably worse in LICs (figure 1.D). Connectivity gaps remain wide as well: logisticsperformance and transport infrastructure in EMDEs lag far behind those in advancedeconomies (figure 1.E). Closing these gaps will require trillions of dollars in additional annual •A powerful engine of job creation.Investment does not just expand output; it also reshapeslabor markets. During periods of investment acceleration, employment rates rise and workersshift from low-productivity agriculture into more productive manufacturing and services.Evidence from nearly 200 investment accelerations between 1950 and 2022 shows that theemployment rate typically rises during these episodes by about 0.2 percentage point per yearin EMDEs—compared with stagnation or decline in other years(figure 2.A). Employment The link between investment and jobs works through several channels. At the firm level,investment in productivity-enhancing activities is associated with higher job creation (Akcigit andKerr 2018; Farole, Ferro, and Gutierrez 2017). Firms that gain access to financial markets, especiallyyoung firms, invest more and create jobs (Didier et al. 2021). Public and private investmentgenerate indirect employment effects when they remove growth constraints, such as throughinvestments in information and communications technology, transportation inf