2026年全球风险报告（第21版）

Contents Preface4 Overview of methodology5 2.1 An underlying context of structural change2.2 Multipolarity without multilateralism2.3 Values at war2.4 An economic reckoning2.5 Infrastructure endangered2.6 Quantum leaps2.7 AI at large23243240465360 Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-202678 Appendix C: Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions81 Appendix D: Risk Governance91 Partner Institutes94 Acknowledgements100 Acknowledgement TheGlobal Risks Reportis produced exclusively by the World Economic Forum.We are grateful to our longstanding partners on previous editions, Marsh andZurich Insurance Group. Their generous inputs and in-depth guidance havebeen invaluable. Terms of use and disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitatedand endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do notnecessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entiretyof its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. All rights reserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without theprior permission of the World Economic Forum. World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744E-mail: contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org ISBN: 978-2-940631-60-5 The report and an interactive data platform areavailable at https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/. Copyright © 2026by the World Economic Forum Preface Saadia ZahidiManaging Director The annualGlobal Risks Reportoffers a view ofglobal risks at the start of each year, focusing globalleaders on addressing emerging challenges andtheir potential knock-on effects. It does not offerpredictions, nor does it suggest that the futureis predetermined. Instead, it provides a range ofpotential futures with a view to prevention andmanagement. Three years ago, the 18th edition oftheGlobal Risks Reportconsidered the possibilityof a “polycrisis”, as risks from multiple domainsunfold at the same time. This 21stedition of theGlobal Risks Reportexplores how a new competitiveorder is taking shape and its impact across multipleconcurrent risk domains. We are witnessing theturmoil caused by kinetic wars, the deploymentof economic weapons for strategic advantage,and growing fragmentation across societies. Andas these “here and now” risks unfold, longer-termchallenges, from technological acceleration toenvironmental decline, continue to create knock-on effects across systems. In parallel, rules andinstitutions that have long underpinned stability areincreasingly deadlocked or ineffective in managingthis turbulence. Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as themost severe risk over the next two years whileeconomic risks have experienced the sharpestrises among all risk categories over the two-year timeframe, with concerns growing over aneconomic downturn, rising inflation and potentialasset bubbles as countries face high debt burdensand volatile markets. Meanwhile, inequality isonce again identified as the most interconnectedglobal risk over the next decade, fuelling otherglobal risks as the social contract between citizensand government falters under pressure. And asshorter-term concerns overtake shared long-term global objectives, environmental risks arebeing reprioritized downward in the two-year timehorizon, with the majority declining in rank andexhibiting reduced severity scores, even as theyremain key concerns in the ten-year time horizon.Finally, technological acceleration, while drivingunprecedented opportunities, is also generatingsignificant risks in the form of misinformation anddisinformation, a top short-term concern, andcreating anxiety about the potentially adverse long-term outcomes of AI, a risk that sees the sharpestincrease in rank between the short term and thelong term across all 33 risks covered. While this report examines the worst-casescenarios across domains, it is also clear that newforms of global cooperation are already unfoldingeven amid competition, and the global economy isdemonstrating resilience in the face of uncertainty.This shifting landscape, where cooperation looksmarkedly different than it did yesterday, reflects apragmatic reality: collaborative approaches remainessential to sustain economic growth, accelerateinnovation responsibly, and build adaptive capacityfor an increasingly complex era. This reportexamines a future where today’s relative resiliencebreaks down in the face of unprecedentedturbulence, defined by the accelerating scale,interconnectedness and speed of global risks.Among contributors to the report’s survey andnarrative, negative perceptions of the future aremounting. We find that 50%