2026年美国葡萄酒产业状况

State of the U.S.Wine Industry 2026 Written by Rob McMillanEVP & FounderSilicon Valley Bank Wine Division Contents 1Introduction32Executive summary43Review of last year’s predictions54Annual SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry survey95Success guide226U.S. Wine demand, correction and length317Financial performance trends & benchmarks408Technical appendix44 Introduction For 26 consecutive years, Silicon Valley Bank has published the State of theU.S.Wine Industry Report, offering wineries, growers, distributors, lenders, educators,the press, and the broader supply chain a clear view of where the wine industrystands, how we got here, and what the future holds. Rob McMillan EVP & Founder,SVB Wine Divisionrmcmillan@svb.com This report isn’t just an academic exercise. Its purpose is to harness insights fromsome of the most experienced insiders in the wine business, providing an unmatched,data-driven understanding of industry risks, opportunities and realities. But we neverstop trying to improve, and this year you’ll notice a change that reflects industryneeds. Rob McMillanis one of the top wine-businessanalysts in the United States and the author ofSilicon Valley Bank’s highly regarded annualState of the Wine Industry Report, described byThe New York Timesas “probably the mostinfluential analysis of its kind.” Starting with the 2018 report, we began alerting the industry to an approachingdemand correction that would require a response. The business was otherwise doingwell so a prediction of that type wasn’t gratefully received. But, we were out ahead oftrends as a thought leader should be. Now that we’re here, there’s no need to tell youabout the threat that has arrived; everyone now knows and understands. So, we’rerefocusing our view to recovery. With Rob’s decades of experience researchingthe industry and working with winery clients, hisviews are sought after and trusted by wineryowners, journalists, entrepreneurs and investors. Our goal with the report is partly to raise awareness. We all need to be attentive to thefactors that surround our business. We will still provide you with our view of the currentindustry dynamics. But starting with this report, our primary goal—with continuedindustry cooperation in our two surveys—is to offer more benchmarking and planningtools, unique street-level intelligence and ideas to help you adapt. He is a prominent speaker, domestically andinternationally, and you will find him extensivelyquoted in the national, regional and trade press. After reading this report, we hope you will come away inspired and equipped withaction plans that enhance your chances of success in 2026 and beyond. Rob McMillan Executive summary The U.S.wine industry enters 2026 in a period defined as much by challenge asby opportunity for those willing to evolve. Across every dataset in this report,one finding is unmistakable: success today is behavioral. You have to see theproblem clearly and decide to reorient your message towards an evolved, andyounger consumer base with different desires and values. Key forecast outputs ▪2025 year-end volume: ~329 million cases (down from 335.9 millionin 2024)▪2025 year-end revenue:~$74.3 billion (down from $75.5 billion)▪Timing of Improvement:Declines moderating in 2026; a bumpy bottomforming in 2027–2028, followed by slow, modest growth thereafter The long era of passive demand—when visitation, distributor pull and automaticclub growth could mask strategic shortcomings—has ended. What has emergedis a widening performance gap in which the upper quartile wineries continue togrow despite industry contraction, while the lower quartiles struggle to adapt. As we move through this demand correction, we can see the industry isbifurcating into those doing well and those not doing so well. Since the industrywill downsize, you don’t want to be in that second group today. This divide is evident not only in sales growth and pricing power but in howwineries describe their year. Top-performers focus on dialed-in consumerengagement, disciplined inventory and financial management, more precisebrand positioning, and hospitality-centered experiences that build loyalty ratherthan throughput. Digital tools amplify these efforts rather than substituting forthem. The next phase of this correction will reward wineries that plan with clarity,engage with purpose and adapt with discipline. Said succinctly, the next phasewill reward those who recognize the reasons behind the changing demand andthen fundamentally change their businesses to accommodate it. Those whocontinue to do what they’ve always done will find their strategies failing as theywatch from the sidelines, clinging to the fraying belief that their way has alwaysworked before. By contrast, lower-performing wineries cite slowing traffic, distributordisengagement, discounting and rising costs—responses that, while accurate,reflect the lack of strategic attention. We are at a point where the problem hasbeen ident