中国运动服饰2026年展望：户外市场成熟但专业品牌势头不减

China Sportswear 2026 Outlook: Outdoor Matures but SpecialistMomentum Intact China's sportswear market is transitioning from high-growth expansion to mature,share-taking growth through 2030E, with total market moderating to ~6% CAGRwhile outdoor maintains structural outperformance at ~12% CAGR.The sector isshifting from "land-grab" category penetration to share reallocation and premiumization,with success increasingly dependent on brand differentiation, technical innovation, andchannel efficiency. Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Outdoor is now the largest category but maturing with growth moderating to+12% YoY from 29% CAGR (2021–2025E), but with sustained brand substitutionas technical specialists take share from generalists.Market players are respondingby broadening price architecture and expanding into niche, functional, and professionalsegments. Apparel leads FY25 category performance at +18% YoY while sneakers grew+14% YoY, indicating healthy growth across all sportswear categories. Frankie Fong+852 2123 2637frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com Technical specialists like Arc'teryx and Salomon are taking share within outdooreven as category growth decelerates, as consumers shift toward technical, higher-ASP products.Arc'teryx strengthens to ~20% outdoor share by 2025E (from ~7% in2019), Salomon to ~6%, and Descente to ~18%. Within premium overall, established globalsportswear brands lose share (declining from combined ~70% in 2019 to ~52% by 2030E)to technical and lifestyle specialists including outdoor, running, yoga, and athleisure-focused players. In mass, the competitive landscape is consolidating around four majordomestic brands: Anta (~23%), Li Ning (~21%), Xtep (~14%), and 361 Degrees (~9%),who maintain stable shares through 2030E by leveraging scale advantages, while thefragmented tail of smaller players ("Others") loses significant ground. Brand performance in 2025 is highly polarized (+167% to -99%), as technicalspecialists capture disproportionate growth while many established brandsstagnate or decline.Top performers are concentrated among technical outdoor andrunning specialists: Arc'teryx (+167%), Salomon (+150%), Descente (+84%) deliveringtriple-digit or strong double-digit growth despite premium price points, while severalestablished brands sit at or below the ~18% market average growth line. Premiumpositioning alone is insufficient, success depends on positioning through continuousinnovation, expanding across adjacent categories (trail running, hiking-to-lifestyle), andscaling distribution without diluting brand equity. In mass, outcomes are bifurcated between a small set of winners executing onvalue-for-money and widespread underperformance among scaled incumbents.A handful of brands (Xtep, Skechers) show solid growth through sharp propositions andplatform execution, while many scaled domestic players (Anta, Li Ning) cluster belowthe market average at low-to-mid single-digit growth, and value-end brands face sharpdeclines (Qiaodan, Guirenniao, Erke). Winners require proposition clarity, technicalinnovation, and omnichannel excellence, as category growth no longer masks executiongaps. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Amer Sports(Outperform, $46 target, 22% upside) is the clear beneficiary as Arc'teryx and Salomon gain share within outdooreven as category growth normalizes, with technical credibility and margin expansion (7.4% to 11.1% net margin by 2030E)positioning sustained mid-teens growth.Anta Sports(Market-Perform, HKD 89 target, 8% upside) benefits from Descenteand Amer exposure but faces pressure from the flagship brand's -low growth, sitting vulnerably in the "masstige middle" asspecialists capture incremental growth.Li Ning(Underperform, HKD 17 target, 16% downside) is structurally disadvantagedwith growth significantly underperforming the market, lacking both the technical credibility of specialists and the scaleadvantages of Anta in a fragmenting market shifting to share reallocation. •Amer Sports (Outperform):We believe Amer's technical brand strength in Arc'teryx and Salomon, demonstrated executioncredibility through repeated guidance raises, and structural margin expansion opportunity from 7.4% to 11.1% net marginby 2030E justify a premium valuation despite China market normalization, as the company can sustain mid-teens growth bycapturing share from generalists and focus on overseas expansion, as higlighted in this report (Amer Sports: Beyond China— The Next Growth Phase); the stock trades at 31.9x NTM P/E close to historical average, and we maintain our Outperformrating with 33x NTM+1 P/E and target price of $46.0, implying 22% potential upside from current levels given healthybusiness growth with improving operating efficiency. •Anta Sports (Market-Perform):We see Anta as fairly valued given its mass-market leadership and portfolio diversificationprovide defensive qualities, but the fl