1月15日央行结构性降息点评

1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。完善结构性工具并加大支持力度,进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 targeted support for private SMEs, technology, and consumption. At a press conference, the PBOC announced that "Since January 19, 2026, theagriculture and small businesses will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25%, respectively; the rediscount rate will be 1.5%; the PSL rate will be 1.75%; and the rates onspecial structural monetary policy tools will be 1.25%." The front-loaded use of structural monetary policy tools, together with the 25 bp rate cut, will help reducebanks' funding costs, thereby facilitating further targeted reductions in financing costs for private SMEs as well as the technology and consumption sectors. Atrelending quota for agriculture and small businesses by RMB 5oo bilion, set aside a dedicated quota of RMB 1 trilion within the total for relending to privateSMEs with a focus on supporting them, and "increase the quota for relending for technological innovation and equipment upgrading, expand the scope ofsupport, raise the quota from RMB 800 bilion by RMB 400 bilion to RMB 1.2 tilion, and include private SMEs with relatively high R&D investment intensity in relatively stable and the U.s. dollar is in an easing cycle, meaning the exchange rate does not pose a strong constraint Internaly, banks' net interest marginsprevious report, we estimated that the maturity of high-interest deposits in 2026 could improve listed banks' deposit cost rates by around 35 bps, thereby lifing3. The net monthly scale of PBOC purchases of government bonds may increase in 2026. At the press conference, the PBOC stated that “goingforward, the PBOC will comprehensively consider base money supply needs, conditions of bond market supply and demand, and changes in the shape of theyield curve, and will flexibly conduct government bond trading operations. Together with other liquidity tools, this will ensure ample liquidity and create a suitablemonetary and financial environment for the smooth issuance of government bonds." Although the PBOC resumed government bond trading in 2025, the overallnet injection scale remained relatively small, with net purchases of only RMB 20 bilion, RMB 50 billion, and RMB 50 billion in October, November, and increase to help ensure smooth issuance.Bond Market Outlook: In the short term, the front-loaded deployment of structural monetary policy tools, alongside the absence of broad-based easingmeasures, could allow expectations of credit expansion to pick up, potentially causing further disturbances in the bond market. However, given that the bondmarket has already undergone a notable adjustment, current valuations appear more attractive and institutional demand for allocation may rise, suggesting that 央行表示“自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。下调后，3个月、6个月和1年期支农支小再贷款利率分别为0.95%、1.15%和1.25%，再贴现利率为1.5%，抵押补充贷款利率为1.75%，专项结构性货币政策工具利率为1.25%”。结构性货币政策工具靠前发力，利率下调25BP，有助于降低银行的成本，从而进一步定向降低中小民营企业、科技和消费领域的融资利率。同时，央行提到“合并使用支农支小贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，总额度中单设中小民营企业再贷款，额度1万亿元，额度，并扩大支持范围，将科技创新和技术改造贷款额度从8000亿元增加4000亿元至1.2万亿元，并将研发投资水平较高的民营中小企业纳入支持领域，对民营中小企业、科技和消费领域的支持力度有所加大，体现了货币政策对实体经济的支持。2、2026年降准降息仍有一定的空间，但一季度降息的概率或有所下降。2026年法定存款准备金率仍有一定的调降空间，从法定存款准备金率看，目前金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均为6.3%，离5%的关键点位还有一定的距离，2026年降准仍然还有空间。从政策利率来看，2026年降息的限制也有所减弱，外部约束方面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美元处于降息通道，汇率不构成很强的约束；内部约束方面，2025年以来，银行净息差已经出现企稳迹象，2026年还有规模较大的3年期及5年期的长期存款到期，此次下调各项结构性货币政策工具利率都有助于降低银行付息成本，稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。我们此前报告中测算，2026年高息存款到期后或会对上市银行存款成本率改善35BP左右，从而改善银行净息差10-15BP左右，有利于进一步打开货币政策的空间。但考虑到1月已经调降结构性货币政策工具利率，短期一季度降息的概率或有所下降。3、2026年单月国债买卖净投放规模或有所上升。发布会上，央行表示“下一步，人民银行将综合考虑基础货币投放需要、债券市场供求情况、收益行虽然重启国债买卖，但整体净投放规模偏低，10月、11月和12月仅分别净投放200亿元、500亿元和500亿元，随着2026年政府债的前置发力，为了维护政府债的顺利发行，央行单月净买入国债的规模或有所上升。债市观点：短期来看，本次结构性货币政策工具率先发力，而总量型工具有所缺席，不排除宽信用预期升温可能对债市继续有所扰动。不过考虑债市前期已呈现明显调整，且当前配置价值或有所显现，以及机构配置动力或有所上升，因此整体走势或较为震荡。另外中期来看，一者央行方面强调今年降准降息仍有一定空间，二者央行方面仍强调促进社融综合融资成本低位运行，这或仍将对债市构成支撑。风险因素：1）货币宽松不及预期；2）供给加速超预期；3）政策超预期Source: PBOC Wind CITIC Futurespe sentor copied without authorization.CITiC Futuresmakesressoftheinf考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权