台积电盈利：人工智能盈利确认谨慎乐观

confirmed by AI profitability TSMC earnings: Cautious optimism confirmed TSMC(TSM US,NR)delivered strong FY25 earnings,with revenue atUS$122bn (+35.9% YoY) and GPM at 59.9%. In 4Q25, revenue reachedUS$33.7bn(+1.9%QoQ)and GPM rose to 62.3%,supported by costimprovements, FX tailwinds and sustained high utilization. Looking ahead,mgmt.guided1Q26 revenue at US$34.6–35.8bn with GPM of 63–65%, andraised2026 revenue growth guidance to ~30%versus its Foundry 2.0 industrygrowth outlook of ~14%. Importantly, TSMC also stepped up 2026 capex toUS$52–56bn (wayahead of Bloomberg consensus),which we read as adeliberate move to pull forward leading-edge and advanced packaging China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Gross margin is the core beat and near-term anchor.4Q25 GPMreached62.3%and 1Q26 guidance of 63–65%indicates 60%+isachievable into early 2026, supported by leading-edge mix, tight capacityand execution. Management reiterates ~56% GPM as a through-cyclefloor, implying 60%+ is not guaranteed every quarter but is no longer a one-off. Key headwinds aretiming-driven:N2 ramp dilution in 2H26 (~2–3ppt AI bubble risk:Management is validating demand, not extrapolating. Management addressed bubble concerns by citing direct checks withcustomers andcustomers’ customers, highlighting observed AI ROI andcontinued adoption. This drivesthe upward revision to ~30% revenuegrowth in 2026(vs~14%Foundry 2.0 industry growth, implying non-AIdemand remains soft) and the step-up in2026 capex to US$52–56bn(70–80%advanced nodes;10–20%advanced packaging/testing/masks/others), implying~32% YoYgrowth vsUS$40.9bnin 2025. The takeaway Long-term growthoutlookupgraded with AI as a structural driver. Management raised AI accelerator revenue CAGR to mid-to-high 50%(2024–2029) and increased overall revenue CAGR to ~25% over the sameperiod. AI accelerators already accounted for a high-teens % of FY25revenue.Given management’s historically conservative stance on capacityplanning, the combination ofsustained 60%+ near-term margin guidance, Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in theHong Kong listed companies covered in this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over10% over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluate particular investments or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as anoffer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequ