2026年汽车行业展望：直面行业变局

Heading for a shake-up Intelligencethat moves Economist Intelligence (EIU) operates atthe intersection of macroeconomics andgeopolitics, delivering data-led insightsthat empower financial institutions,corporations and governments to makestrategic decisions for the future.Our coverage across 200+ markets Our solutions Operational Risk Country Analysis Understand the political, policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the globaldynamics that affect your organisation, enabling you Plan effectively with EIU’s expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisablerisk matrices, our service provides you with the toolsneeded to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to Speaker Bureau Financial Risk Gain unparalleled insights into the global financiallandscape. Combining EIU’s market-leading dataand country expertise, our rigorous risk-modellingframework enables you to accurately identify risks to Strengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIU’s experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions, or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political, Contact us for more information The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features, please contact us London New York Hong Kong Economist Intelligence900 Third Avenue, 16th FloorNew York Economist IntelligenceThe Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street Economist Intelligence1301 Cityplaza Four12 Taikoo Wan Road Tel:+44 (0)20 7576 8000E-mail:london@eiu.com Tel:+1 212 541 0500E-mail:americas@eiu.com Tel:+ 852 2585 3888E-mail:asia@eiu.com Gurgaon Dubai Economist Intelligence9th FloorInfinity Tower ADLF Cyber City Economist IntelligencePO Box No - 450056Office No - 1301AAurora TowerDubai Media City Tel:+971 4 4463 147E-mail:mea@eiu.com Tel:+91 124 6409486E-mail:asia@eiu.com Contents What to watch in 2026Risks and opportunities510 What to watch in 2026 •Automotive trade barriers will intensify a sectoral shake-up started bythe shift to electric vehicles (EVs), forcing carmakers to reconfigure •Chinese automakers will step up efforts to become global brands, andtheir Western peers will lobby for more protection. •Global sales of new cars will rise by 2.5% year on year in 2026,following strong performances in 2023-25, but will remain just short •EVs will remain the best-performing segment, with sales increasingby about 15% to 25.8m units, despite the lack of US EV incentives. •Sales of new commercial vehicles (CVs) will decline marginally,particularly following the imposition of US import tariffs in Trade and tariffpolicies will reshape Vehicle producers have facednumerous challenges over the pastfew years, but a combination ofhigher trade barriers and toughercompetition in the EV market nextyear may represent the biggest trialyet. In 2026 companies will needto focus on rejigging their supplychains, production schedules andsales mixes, at a time when revenues a “just-in-case” model to improvesupply-chain resilience. This willinvolve moving the sourcing of high-value, tariff-sensitive componentslike battery cells, motors and keyelectronics closer to the finalassembly plant, thereby increasinglocalisation and minimising policyexposure. Hyundai (South Korea),Volkswagen (Germany) andStellantis (Netherlands) are amongthose ramping up US productionto minimise tariffs, and companies In general, automakers will replace“just-in-time” supply chains (which Chinese carmakerswill disrupt the Aided by these investments,Chinese carmakers, led by BYD,SAIC and possibly Geely, willbreak into the top of the globalautomakers’ rankings, overtakingStellantis and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance. In doing so, theywill pose serious risks to establishedautomakers, which will lobbygovernments and form alliances toprotect their global market shares.However, Chinese automakersthemselves will face risks.One is their overreliance on theirhome market, where slow sales Despite efforts to reducereliance on China, that country’scarmakers will play a crucial rolein this rearrangement of the globalautomotive industry. In 2026Chinese automakers will expandtheir overseas footprint, especiallyin Europe, Latin America and theASEAN region. BYD, which isexpanding aggressively, will beginproduction at its new facilities inHungary and Turkey, in a bid toavoid EU tariffs of up to 45% onits imports of battery EVs (BEVs). Competition is set to heat Annual unit sales by carmaker Copyright © The Economist IntelligenceUnit 2025. All rights reserved. New-car sales willbe subdued, butwill inch closer to Amid all this turmoil, new-car salesacross the world’s 60 biggestmarkets will surpass 68m units in2026 for the first time since 2017.However, they will remain 1% belowtheir record high of 69m units setin that year. Growth will be drivenby developing market demand,combined with lower price-tags f