中国：2026年汽车销量下降幅度大幅加深

China:Decline inauto sales volume deepenedsharply into 2026 Research Analysts Asia Economics Hannah Liu - NIHKhanfsh.iu@norrurs.com A likely sharp contraction in auto sales could be a significant drag oneconomic growth. Ting Lu - NIHKwoc'enuougnrBu;+852 2252 1306 Domestic auto sales have faced intensitving headwindsfurther since the starl of 2025.since Q4 2025, and the situation has delerioratedAccording to CPCA data, the fall in domestic retailsales volume of passenger vehicles deepened sharplyto -32.0% y-0-y on 1-11 January from -14.2% inDecember.We believe this rapid pace of contraction is likely toextend into Q1 2028, driven by thre scaied-back fradein progran, and the increase in the EV purchase laxfrom0%to5%January and February date are likely to be volatile. Thelater-than-usual Spring Festival (15-23 Februery) thisyear could provide temporary support to auto salestoward end-January, though this would be followed bymore pronounoed fallin February.We estirnate the passenger car seclor accounted foraround 3% of GDP in 2025. The sharp fall in domeslicauto sales might pose a significant drag oni growth inQ1 2026.This drag may not be easily offset by exports. Despiterapid growth, export volume of passenger vehiclesreached 5.7 million units in 2025, only 24% of domesticsales volume. Moreover, export perfomance remainsvulnerable to geopolitical developments amid thesecond China shock Appendix A-1 This report has been produced by Nomura Irternalienal (Hong Kong) Lid. (NIHK), Hong Kong.See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entily details. Analyst Certification or all of the subject securities ar issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part af aur corrpensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the sperific: recommendaficns or views expressedt in this Restarch report and (3) no part of cur canpensation is tied tp any specificinveslnent banking transactiars perfarmed by NomLra Securities Intcrnational, Inc., Namura International plc or ary cthcr Nomura Groupcompany. Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura Group research is avalasle on aaw.naruranw.comiresgarch, Bloomberg, Capilal IQ, Factset, LSEG.Important disclosuree may be read at bitlpsliga.namuranoy.comireatarchimDisdlosures or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc.If you have any dificutes with the website, please email grasuaporispromura.cam for help. The analysts responeible for preparing this repert have received compensation baeed upon various factors inclucing the fimm's total revenugs, aportion of wnich is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US anlysts Iisted at the front of this report arenot registered/quaified as research analysts under FINRA rules, ITay not be associated persons of NSl, and may not be sJbject to FINFRA Rule2241 restrictions on cormmunicgtions with covered cormpanies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account Nomura Global Financial Procucte Inc. (NGFF) Nomura Derivaltive Procucts lnc. (NDP) and Norura International plc. (Nlplc) are registered withthe Commoditiee Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association (NFA) as swap dealers. NGFP, NDPI, and Nlplc aregenerally erngaged in th:e trading of swaps and other derivative products, any of which may be the subject of this report. Disclaimers contibutions cf cne or more Nomura Group enuties whoee ermplioyees and their respective affliations are specified on pege 1 or identifiedelsevhere in this publication. The lerm *Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nonmura Holcings, Inc. and its afiliates and subsidiaries including:(s) Normura Securilies Co., Lld. ('NSC') Tokyo, Japan, (b) Nomura Financial Products Europe GmbH ('NFPE'), Gerfmany, (c) NormuraIntermational plc (Nlplc’), UK, (d) Nomura Securities International, Inc. (NSir), New Yerk, US, (e) Norura Intermstional (Hong Korng) Ltc('NIHK'), Horg Kong, (↑) Nernurea Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Lid. (‘NFIK'), Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registerec with theKorea Financial Investnent Association (KOFIA) can be found on the KOFIA Inltranet at bllp:idis.kofia.or.kr, (g) Nomura Singapore Ltd. ('NSL'),.licence numter 245412, () Nornura Securities Mslsysia Sdn. Bhd. ('NSMr), Malaysia, (i) NIHK, Taipei Branch (NITE'), Taiwan, (k) NomuraFinancial Advisory and Securities (Indis) Private Limited (NFASL'), Murmbai, India (Registered Address: Ceejgay House, Level 11, Plot F.Shivsgggr Estate, Dr. Annie Besant Roed, Worli, Mumtai- 400 018, India; Tel: 91 22 4057 4037, Fax: 91 22 4037 4111; CIN No:U74140MH2007PTC169116, SEBI Registration No. for Sicck Broking activities : INZ0002558S3; SEBI Regietraltion No. for Merchiant Banking :INM000011419; SEBI Registration No. for Research: INH000001014 - Compliarce Oficer: Ms. Fratiksha Tondvalkar, 91 22 40374E04,grievance eal: imveslcrgrierancasras@nomura.com Webpage:_ LINK For reporis with res