中国人工智能月度报告：中美估值对比

China (PRC) | Technology China AI Monthly: US vs China Valuation Our update shows US AI valuation has risen ~US$8trn/42% since Jul 2024,implying 35x incremental 2026E PE and driven mainly by opticals/memory.China's AI valuation since DS (Jan 13) has risen ~US$732bn/88%, implying253x incremental PE and driven most by SPE/foundries. We see furtherupside in China, as the mkt cap of our China AI basket is only 8% of the US,but the capex ratio is 18%. China's AI model performance gap vs the USfurther shrank to 6% (from 8%). Source: FactSet, Jefferies. *US = Global ex China China saw more powerful re-rating in an early stage vs the US but could have more upside.We updated our US (=global ex China) AI valuation (Jan 5 price closes, last update Jul 2024) byadding AI app, IDC and optical stocks (now total 46), and introduced China valuation using thesame methodology (33 stocks). Since Jul 2024, the US AI basket has risen by ~US$8trn/42%.Since the advent of ChatGPT, it has skyrocketed by ~US$18trn/218%. Based on cons, weestimate US AI valuation is now at 26x 2026E PE (29x ex memory). Since Jul 2024, US AI'sappreciation implies 35x incremental 2026E PE. For China, we use Jan 13 2025 as the startingpoint, before DeepSeek (DS) was widely known. Since then China's AI basket has risen by US$732bn/88%, trading at ~24x 2026E PE. Based on cons, we est. China AI's rally so far implies253x incremental 2026E PE, which is much higher than the US given China's early stage of AIand thus more upside in earnings. We see upside to China AI's mkt cap since China as a %of the US in market value is only 6.5% (8% if we include major unlisted co.s based on privatemarket valuation), but China's AI capex (2023-25E) is 18% of the US and likely rising. Subsectors' valuation: CSP/AI apps/IDC lower in China; IC design/foundries/SPE lower inglobal ex China.China's AI basket is dominated by CSPs (65% of mkt cap) and then SPE (8%)vs the US being dominated by CSPs (46%) and IC design (26%). China's IC design (dominatedby newly listed GPU design co.s), foundries (SMIC+Hua Hong) and SPE stocks trade at asignificant premium to its US peers, while Chinese CSPs, AI apps (software) and IDCs trade ata discount. That partly drove our positive view on VNET, GDS and Kingdee. China's AI model performance gap vs the US narrowed further to 6%, thanks to Zhipu's GLM4.7.Zhipu's GLM 4.7 released on Dec 22 became the best-performing LLM of China, and helpedChina further narrow the performance gap with the best US model (Gemini 3 Pro) to 6% (from8% in Nov). In 4Q25, Chinese flagship LLMs have improved faster than most of their US peers. 5Chinese LLMs published new releases with an avg increase in intelligence score of 10.8, while2 US LLMs released new versions with an avg rise in intelligence score of 6.0. Source: FactSet, Jefferies A new supportive AI policy from the gov boosted sentiment.On Dec 25, the MIIT togetherwith 7 other central gov authorities issued the Implementation Plan on the "AI+ Manufacturing"Special Action, which targets to 1) deploy 3-5 general LLMs in manufacturing, 2) develop1,000 cutting-edge industrial agents, 3) curate 100 high-quality industrial datasets and 500benchmark use cases, and 4) cultivate 2-3 global ecosystem leaders and 1,000 benchmarkcompanies. Moreover, the gov wants to focus on 5 industries for AI deployment: 1) rawmaterials, 2) equipment manufacturing, 3) consumer goods, 4) electronics and 5) software &IT services. Edison Lee, CFA * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.comSource: FactSet, Jefferies Matt Ma * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.com The US allows the sale of H200 but no clarity from the Chinese gov yet; either way positivefor IDC.On Dec 8, Trump announced approval for NVDA to sell H200 chips to China. ButChina has not decided if it would approve such purchase. Even so, industry checks indicateBytedance/BABA are planning a total of 2GW of IDC orders, likely for 1H26 and using chipsin inventory. Annie Ping, CFA, FRM * | Equity Associate+852 3767 1273 | annie.ping@jefferies.com Nick Cheng * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.com Jacky He * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.com The 3-Minute Guide China AI CAPEX Is 18% of the US (=Global ex China), but AI Market Cap Is Only 8%, Implying Further Upside US AI Market Cap Risen US$8trn Since Jul 2024, Implying 35x Incremental P/E China AI Market Cap Risen US$732bn Since DS, Implying 253x Incremental P/E China's IC Design (Newly Listed GPU Players), Foundries and SPE Stocks Trade at a Significant Premium to Its US Peers Chinese CSPs, AI Applications (Software) and IDCs Trade at a Discount to Its US Peers China's Top AI Model Performance Gap vs the US Narrowed Further to 6% (from 8% in Nov), Thanks to Zhipu's GLM 4.7 BABA’s Qwen Model Has Had the Highest Download Share Since Late 2024 China’s AI in a Global Context–Jan 2026US vs China Valuation–More Upside for China Edison Lee, CFA |