中国人工智能月度报告：中美估值对比

China (PRC) | Technology China AI Monthly: US vs China Valuation Our update shows US AI valuation has risen ~US$8trn/42% since Jul 2024,implying 35x incremental 2026E PE and driven mainly by opticals/memory.China's AI valuation since DS (Jan 13) has risen ~US$732bn/88%, implying253x incremental PE and driven most by SPE/foundries. We see furtherupside in China, as the mkt cap of our China AI basket is only 8% of the US,but the capex ratio is 18%. China's AI model performance gap vs the US Source: FactSet, Jefferies. *US = Global ex China China saw more powerful re-rating in an early stage vs the US but could have more upside.We updated our US (=global ex China) AI valuation (Jan 5 price closes, last update Jul 2024) byadding AI app, IDC and optical stocks (now total 46), and introduced China valuation using thesame methodology (33 stocks). Since Jul 2024, the US AI basket has risen by ~US$8trn/42%.Since the advent of ChatGPT, it has skyrocketed by ~US$18trn/218%. Based on cons, weestimate US AI valuation is now at 26x 2026E PE (29x ex memory). Since Jul 2024, US AI'sappreciation implies 35x incremental 2026E PE. For China, we use Jan 13 2025 as the startingpoint, before DeepSeek (DS) was widely known. Since then China's AI basket has risen by US$732bn/88%, trading at ~24x 2026E PE. Based on cons, we est. China AI's rally so far implies Source: FactSet, Jefferies Subsectors' valuation: CSP/AI apps/IDC lower in China; IC design/foundries/SPE lower inglobal ex China.China's AI basket is dominated by CSPs (65% of mkt cap) and then SPE (8%)vs the US being dominated by CSPs (46%) and IC design (26%). China's IC design (dominatedby newly listed GPU design co.s), foundries (SMIC+Hua Hong) and SPE stocks trade at a Source: FactSet, Jefferies China's AI model performance gap vs the US narrowed further to 6%, thanks to Zhipu's GLM4.7.Zhipu's GLM 4.7 released on Dec 22 became the best-performing LLM of China, and helpedChina further narrow the performance gap with the best US model (Gemini 3 Pro) to 6% (from8% in Nov). In 4Q25, Chinese flagship LLMs have improved faster than most of their US peers. 5 Source: FactSet, Jefferies A new supportive AI policy from the gov boosted sentiment.On Dec 25, the MIIT togetherwith 7 other central gov authorities issued the Implementation Plan on the "AI+ Manufacturing"Special Action, which targets to 1) deploy 3-5 general LLMs in manufacturing, 2) develop1,000 cutting-edge industrial agents, 3) curate 100 high-quality industrial datasets and 500 Edison Lee, CFA * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.comSource: FactSet, Jefferies Matt Ma * | Equity Analyst 852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.com The US allows the sale of H200 but no clarity from the Chinese gov yet; either way positivefor IDC.On Dec 8, Trump announced approval for NVDA to sell H200 chips to China. ButChina has not decided if it would approve such purchase. Even so, industry checks indicate Annie Ping, CFA, FRM * | Equity Associate+852 3767 1273 | annie.ping@jefferies.com Nick Cheng * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.com Jacky He * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.com The 3-Minute Guide China AI CAPEX Is 18% of the US (=Global ex China), but AI Market Cap Is Only 8%, Implying Further Upside US AI Market Cap Risen US$8trn Since Jul 2024, Implying 35x Incremental P/E Source: FactSet, Jefferies China AI Market Cap Risen US$732bn Since DS, Implying 253x Incremental P/E .Source: FactSet, Jefferies .Source: FactSet, Jefferies China's IC Design (Newly Listed GPU Players), Foundries and SPE Stocks Trade at a Significant Premium to Its US Peers Chinese CSPs, AI Applications (Software) and IDCs Trade at a Discount to Its US Peers China's Top AI Model Performance Gap vs the US Narrowed Further to 6% (from 8% in Nov), Thanks to Zhipu's GLM 4.7 Source: Artificial Analysis, JefferiesUS frontier model intelligence as benchmark (100%) In 4Q25, Chinese AI Models Have Improved Faster than Most US Peers BABA’s Qwen Model Has Had the Highest Download Share Since Late 2024 China’s AI in a Global Context–Jan 2026US vs China Valuation–More Upside for China Jacky He | Equity Analyst(852) 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.com Annie Ping, CFA, FRM | Equity Associate(852) 3767 1273 |annie.ping@jefferies.com Executive Summary Global ex China AI Mkt Cap Risen US$8trn Since Jul 2024, Implying 35x Incremental P/E ▪As of Jan 5, 2026, our basket of 46 global ex-China AI stocks’ totalmarket cap reached US$27trn. This basket added~US$8trn invalue (or up 42%) since our last update on July 4, 2024. ▪Since July 2024, consensus 2026 rev/NP of this basket has risen byUS$355bn/226bn, or 12%/29% during this period, implying35x ▪Among different categories of our global ex-China AI basket, the Optical module group saw the biggest market cap increase of321% (US$179bn in value), mainlydriven byLumentum(577%)andEoptolinkTechnology (433%). This group has an incremental ▪For su