气候适应与能源改革：增强博茨瓦纳的宏观经济韧性

Climate Adaptation andEnergy Reform: Emanuele Massetti, Danielle Minnett, and Filippos Tagklis SIP/2025/162 IMF Selected IssuesPapers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2025DEC IMFSelected IssuesPaper African Department Authorized for distribution byÉdouardMartin IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Botswana faces mounting macroeconomic risks from intensifying climate trends and fiscal strainfrom electricity subsidies. Rising temperatures, more frequent extreme heat, andlongerdroughts threatenagricultural yields, labor productivity, and long-termgrowth. Electricity subsidies further compound these risks,limiting the government’s capacity to respond effectively. This paper examines the macroeconomic and fiscal RECOMMENDED CITATION:Massetti, E.Minnett, D., Taglis, F.T.(2025).Adaptation and EnergyReform:Strengthening Botswana’s Macroeconomic Resilience.IMF Selected Issues Paper No.2025/162. International SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Climate Adaptation and EnergyReform: Strengthening Botswana Prepared byEmanuele Massetti, Danielle Minnett, and Filippos Tagklis A.Introduction 1.Growing macroeconomic risks from observed climate trends and projections, alongside fiscalstrain from electricity subsidies, call for effective adaptation policies and energy sector reforms.Theintersection ofclimate trends, macroeconomic risks, and fiscal pressures in Botswana presents a criticalchallenge that demands urgent policy attention. The continued and intensifying warming trend, marked by morefrequent extreme heat events and prolonged droughts, poses significant macroeconomic threats to the nation’s 2.Recognizing these stakes, this paper will examine the macroeconomic implications ofobserved and projected climate trends in Botswana, analyze the fiscal impacts of energy sectorchallenges, and outline a strategic framework for adaptation and reform.The paper will first explore the B.Macroeconomic Risks from Climate Change Climate Trends and Projections 3.Botswana is already experiencing notable warming, with implications for water security, agriculture, and health.The country’s climate is predominantly semi-arid to arid, with limited rainfall and highevapotranspiration (Richardson et al., 2022). Over the past century, Botswana has warmed by more than1.2°C relative to pre-industrial levels—faster than the Sub-Saharan African average (Figure1).1The meanannual temperature was equal to 21.9°C during the 1985–2014 baseline period and is estimated to have country vulnerability to future warming and dryer conditions, particularly through potential impacts on rainfed Source: FADCP Climate Dataset (Massetti and Tagklis, 2024), using CRU data (Harris et al., 2020) and CMIP6 projections(Copernicus Climate Change Service,2021). Notes: All temperature and precipitation are calculated using CRU. The observed temperature changes 1985-2014 (2000) withrespect to 1901-1930 (1915) can be used as a proxy of warming relative to the pre-industrial period. In the second row, thegray line describes historical values based on observations (CRU for temperature and precipitation. The black line describesthe 30-year moving average around each year. Colored lines represent the median of 30-year moving averages of CMIP6 4.Botswana is projected to face significant warming over the coming decades and annual precipitation is expected to decline slightly.Climate projections show a consistent rise in averagetemperaturesunder all scenarios, with median warming of 1.5–2.2°C by 2050 and 1.6-4.1°C by 2085, relativeto the 1985–2014 baseline. Under a high-emissions/fast-warming scenario (SSP3-7.0, 90th percentile),temperatures could rise by nearly 5.5 °C by the end of thecentury (Figure1). In contrast, annual rainfall is 5.Extreme heat and prolonged dry spells are intensifying in Botswana while trends in heavy rainfall events are uncertain.The number of days with maximum daily temperatures exceeding 35 °C (TX35)–a commonly used threshold to characterize hot days–has increased steadily over the past two decades,consistent with observed warming trends. This rise in extreme heat is expected to continue under all emissionsscenarios, with high confidence, further amplifying heat-related stress across sectors(Figure 2). Consecutivedry days (CDD), a key drought indicator, have also shown a marked upward trend since the 1990s, with an 6.This analysis of climate trends and projections highlights increasing risks for themacroeconomic outlook and for the most vulnerable part of the population.The combined effect ofhigher temperatures and reduced rainfall, exacerbated by more frequent extreme temperature and longer dry Source: FADCP Climate Dataset (Massetti and Tagklis, 2024), based on ERA5 reana