中国经济：再平衡仍具挑战性

Rebalancing remains challenging Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk China'sexports of goods in 2025 demonstrated resilience amid globalchallenges, withthe 5.5% growthexceedingourforecasts, driven byenhancedties with non-US economies and supply chain rerouting through intermediaries.Manufacturingsector expanded through innovation and upgrading,with asignificant rise ofhigh-tech exports like integrated circuits,motor vehiclesandmedical equipment,while traditional sectors like garments and toys declined.Imports stagnated at zero growth, widening the trade surplus to a recordUS$1.19trn(estimated 6.1% of GDP), constrained by weak demand andovercapacity pressure in the domesticmarket. China’s GDP growth slowedpost-3Q25, dipping below 5% forat leasttwo quarters, with further decelerationexpected in 1Q26. Policymakers may respond withadditional policy stimulus.Deflation could mildly ease as commodity prices rise. We expect growth ofexports of goods to slow from 5.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026 while growth of Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s exportsremainedrobust amiddestination diversification andglobal supply chain rerouting.China’s exports of goods rose 5.5% in2025,surpassingour forecast of 5.2%.Exports totheUS slumped 20%amid ongoingChina-USdecouplingin trade and supply chains. However,demand frommost otheradvancedeconomieswas strong, withChina’sexportstotheEU, UK, Japan and Australiagrowing by8.4%, 7.8%, 3.5%and 7.9%YoY, respectively. This resilience was supported by stableeconomic growth and stubbornlyhigh prices in those marketsas well asbysignificantprice advantagesof Chinese goods.Exports to most developingeconomies grew even faster, fuelled bytheir rapid economicexpansion, Source: Wind, CMBIGM China’s manufacturingsector continued to expand with acceleratedinnovation and upgrading.China’sexports oftraditional labour-intensivegoods such asgarment, toys, travel goods & bags, furniture, and lamps &lighting fixtures declined 5%, 12.7%, 13.5%, 6.1% and 12.4%respectivelyin 2025.Cell phoneexportsalso experienced a sharp declineby 9.4% astheUS and Japanesecompaniescontinued to diversify their supply chains Importsshowed mild improvement butremained weaker than exports.China’s imports of goodsregisteredzero growth in 2025,outperformingour forecastof-0.5%. However,import growth lagged far behind exports,pushing the tradesurplus to a record high of US$1.19trn(about 6.1% ofGDP). Weakdomesticdemand, deflationary pressure, self-dependenceinitiatives,significantprice advantagesof domestic suppliesandincreasingtechnology control by advanced economiescontinued toconstrainimports.Specifically,import volumes of steel products dropped 21.4%amidslumpingproperty development and a sharp slowdown in traditionalinfrastructure investment.Auto import volume declined 23.5%, continuinga downward trend from 2022 as domestic suppliers increasingly dominated Economicrebalancing remains challenging.China andtheUSexhibitcontrastingeconomic imbalances likeamirror image. Chinafeatureshighhousehold savingsrates,weak consumer demand,excesssupply capacity,deflationary pressures, trade surplus, net capital outflowsand low interestrates,whiletheUS has overheatedconsumer demand, low householdsavings rates, inadequate supply capacity, inflationary pressure, tradedeficit, net capital inflowsand high interest rates.Both countries face highfiscaldeficits,yetChina’s fiscalresources disproportionatelysupportlocalgovernments and enterprises for fixed asset investment,whereas USfiscalfunds mainlybolster households for consumption spending.To rebalance,Chinaneeds tolowerhousehold savingsrates,boost consumption,reducesupply capacity & industrial capex,andredirect fiscal support fromlocal Marketimplications.China's economic growth has slowed since 3Q25, astheproperty stimulus, trade-in subsidies for durables, and the front-loadingof exports created high bases and exhausted future demand. GDP growthremained below 5% for two consecutive quarters and islikelyto slow furtherin 1Q26. With the GDP growth target for 2026 still set at 5%, policymakersface mounting pressure to introduce additional stimulus measures in 1Q26.We anticipate thecentral bankwill cut theRRRby 50bpsand theLPRsby10bps. The Ministry of Financemay also roll out moderate stimulus for theproperty and consumption sectors. The scale and focus of these policieswill be critical for China's bond,stockand FXmarkets. If policymakersprioritize economic rebalancing through aggressive stimulus for propertyand consumption, combined with strong capacity reductions across most Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content ofthis research report, in