新年致辞

January2,2026 Rhee, Chang YongGovernorBank of Korea My dear colleagues at the Bank of Korea, The year 2026 has dawned. I sincerely wishall of you and your familieshealth and peace intheyourdaily lives. First of all, let me express my sincere gratitude to allofour staff who didtheir best in their respective roles despite difficult circumstances over the past year, as well asto the members oftheMonetary Policy Board for their leadership in conducting monetarypolicy. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank your families, who have steadfastlysupported you behind the scenes. Thanks to your collective dedication, the Bank of Korea wasable to endure the past year successfully. Last year, our economy faced numerous challenges and upheavals, making it difficult to seeeven a short distance ahead. We went through a difficult phase in the first quarter, experiencingnegative growth due to the fallout from the unexpected political shock. In April, the globaltradeenvironment also deteriorated sharply following the Trump administration’sunprecedentedly aggressive tariff measures. Fortunately, as political risks eased following thepresidential election in June, growth momentum partially recovered. Nevertheless, the tradeconflict surrounding the Korea–United States investment agreement persisted until the APECLeaders’Meeting at the end of October,which made itdifficult to gauge the pace of economicrecovery. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Korea was also required to make difficult policyjudgments at every moment in conducting monetary policy. Immediately after the declarationofmartial law,wefocused on instilling confidence at home and abroad that the economicsystem was operating normally and independently from politics. Subsequently,as growthslowed amid stable inflation, the Bankcut the Base Rate twiceduringthe first half of the year.The Bank also,continued to support vulnerable sectors through the Bank IntermediatedLending Support Facility. As we moved into the second half of the year, heightened instabilityin the housing market in the Seoul metropolitan area and increased exchange rate volatilityintensified the tension between the two objectives of growth and financial stability. As a result,the Bankdecided to keep the Base Rate unchanged. My dear colleagues, This year, the conditions surrounding oureconomy arealsoexpected to remain challenging. While itmaybedesirabletodelivera message of hopeat the start of a new year,I believe that today’soccasion should go beyond a simple New Year’s greeting.It should serve as a moment to soberlyrecognize the realities we face and to reaffirm our responsibilities and resolve as a central bank. Looking at the external conditions this year,a range ofrisk factors related to the global tradeenvironment and the fiscal policies of major economies remain present.First of all, there issignificant uncertainty regarding the global trade landscape and the monetary policies of majorcountries.On the tradefront, risksconcerningtariffs and trade policy couldresurfacedependingon how judicial and political developments in the United States unfold. If tensions between theUnited States and China were toescalateamid discussions on “globalimbalances,” a key agendaitem at this year’s G20 meetings, it would be difficultforKoreatoremain unaffected. Uncertainty surrounding the investment agreement with the United States cannot yet beconsidered resolved. Although related risks have eased since the APEC Leaders’ Meeting lastOctober, further clarification is still neededwith respect tospecific investment targets andmodalities. In addition, we are well aware of concerns that annual US-bound investment flows ofup to USD 20 billion could exert depreciation pressure on the Korean won.However,this figurerepresentsthemaximum ceiling. As stipulated in thebilateral MOU, the actual scale of investmentwill be determined within a range that does not undermine foreign exchange market stability(Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, 2025).In other words, this does not imply a mechanicalannual outflow of USD 20 billion in investment funds to the United States, andthe Bank of Korea,together with the government,willensure that the actual decided-upon investment flow doesnotcompromise foreign exchangemarketstability.This principle will be firmly upheld withoutexception. Moreover, there is also a high degree of uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in majoreconomies.One key source of uncertainty relates to the future policy direction of the FederalReserve and its implications for global financial markets, particularlyafterthe scheduled endof Chair Powell’s term in May.In addition,other major economies, including Japan, the euroarea, and Australia, have begunpolicy rate hikesor may potentially shift theirpolicy stances.Suchdivergencesin monetary policypathsacross countries could amplify market volatility. Attention should also be paid to the impact of fiscal soundness and government bond marketconditi