2025-26年英国养老地产运营绩效评估报告

2025/26 Knight Frank’s annual assessment of operating performance in the UKSeniors Housing sector. This market-leading report includes analysis ofoccupancy, sales and rental performance of the largest IRC operators. knightfrank.co.uk/research Contents Page 42 0 2 5 - 2 6S U R V E Y I N N U M B E R S Page 6I N V E S T M E N TB A C K D R O P Page 8T R A D I N GP E R F O R M A N C E R E V I E W :C U S T O M E RK P I S Page 10T R A D I N GP E R F O R M A N C E R E V I E W :S C H E M EK P I S Page 12 T R A D I N GP E R F O R M A N C E R E V I E W :M A R K E TP E R F O R M A N C E Page 16T R A D I N GP E R F O R M A N C E R E V I E W :C O S TA N D R E V E N U E K P I S Page 20O P E R AT O RS U R V E Y Page 24Q & A :P R E F E R R E D H O M E S L I M I T E D Page 25F O R W A R DV I E W Introduction The results of our 2025/26 Seniors Housing Trading Performance Review confirmthat the sector continues to evolve and grow as it responds to both customer andinvestor requirements in the face of changing market conditions. This is the 7th edition of our research andthe most detailed survey of the private IRCmarket yet. The report is structured aroundthree key components: AN UPDATE OF THE INVESTMENT ANDMACRO TRENDS SHAPING THE SECTOR WE HAVE ASKED LEADING OPERATORSFOR THEIR VIEWS ON THE SECTOR ANDTHEIR PLANS FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS2 WE HAVE UNDERTAKEN AN INDEPTH ANALYSIS OF OPERATORPERFORMANCE BASED ON DATAACROSS THEIR CURRENT PORTFOLIOS3 This approach provides us with insightsinto the daily operations, performance, andresident profiles across 112 schemes, covering13,489 units, and housing more than 12,000residents. The majority are operational, whilethe remainder are scheduled to open by 2026. The results evidence the customer base, thechanging nature of supply, scheme design,ESG credentials, service provision, as well asthe dynamics of sales and rental absorptionand operational performance. There is much to be positive about. Strongunderlying fundamentals and an increasinglymature operator landscape continue toreinforce the sectors resilience and long-termpotential. It is for this reason that we continueto work in partnership with the sector todeliver the highest quality insight. Such robust, scheme-level evidencestrengthens the sector’s ability to articulateits value proposition to institutionalinvestors, showcasing stable performanceand scalable growth. Survey in numbers £6.8bn TOTAL MARKET VALUE OFUNITS SURVEYED Sector KPIs (private IRCs only) 7.4 yrsaverage length of stay(10+ years operational) COST AND REVENUE KPIS SALES AND RENTAL KPIS -2.3%average annual price change forIRC schemes with DMF Investment backdrop Investment lagging demand DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS ANDINVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES concerns over operational complexity, and alack of available product have kept transactionvolumes low. Sector-specific challengesrelating to regulation, DMF and leaseholdreform, inconsistency around planning policyand tight labour markets have added anotherlayer of complexity. We know the story by now. The UK has a rapidlyageing population. By 2040, a quarter of thepopulation will be aged 65 or above, up from19% today. Yet, the supply of age-appropriateaccommodation to support this cohort in laterlife remains inadequate. Just 8,747 new purpose-designed seniorshomes are expected to be built in 2025, up from7,000 the previous year but still 11% below therecent market peak of nearly 10,000 in 2016.Independent reviews of the sector suggest theUK needs to be building up to 50,000 specialisthomes for older people every year. 8.7knew purpose-designed seniors homes are expectedto be built in 2025, up from 7,000 the previous year Despite this imbalance, investment activityhas been subdued. High financing costs, Number of units 25% Across the Atlantic What the UK can learn from a mature Seniors Housing market of the population will be aged 65 or above by 2040 The US seniors housing sector offers a glimpse into the future of a fullyevolved market – and its trajectory provides valuable cues for investorsin the UK. Strong demand, coupled with a backdrop of constraineddevelopment has pushed occupancy higher, taking the national vacancyrate to 9.1%, its lowest reading since 2018. According to projections byCapital Economics, vacancy could fall to a record low of 8% by 2027. However, there are signs of renewedmomentum. Financing has become moreaccretive to returns, with cuts to the base rateushering in more competitive terms than sixmonths ago. Several landmark transactionsclosed in the third quarter, reinforcingconfidence in the sector’s long-termfundamentals. Additional portfolio deals andcapital raises – spanning both sales and rentalmodels – are expected as we move into 2026. With supply expected to remain tight into the second half of thedecade, annual rent growth is forecast to average circa 4.5% throughto 2030. While demand fundamentals are set to remain robust, thedevelopment pipeline tells a diff