经济型汽车补贴退坡：中国 2026 年以旧换新政策深度解析

Bin WangResearch Analyst 2026 trade-in subsidy policy introduces a percentage-based subsidy capped atthe previous maximums On December 30th, China's National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) and Ministry of Finance (MoF) announced a revised vehicle trade-in subsidypolicy for 2026, significantly reducing per-vehicle subsidies for mid-to-low-pricedvehicles (under Rmb150,000). This move is interpreted as an effort to promotetechnology innovation and improve the auto sector's product mix, as higher-pricedvehicles typically drive technological advancements due to greater Bill of Material(BOM) costs. In contrast to 2025, where central government scrappage trade-insubsidies offered Rmb20k/Rmb15k for NEVs/ICE vehicles (engine size <2.0L) and Wei HuangResearch Associate Low-priced vehicles to face headwinds from revised 2026 subsidy policy The revised 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy programs will reduce support for mid-to-low-priced vehicles (under Rmb150,000), a shift from 2025 policies that offereduniformsubsidy amounts.Under the new rules,only NEVs priced aboveRmb166,700 and ICE vehicles above Rmb150,000 will qualify for the full centralgovernment scrappage trade-in subsidy. Similarly, for local government used-cartrade-in subsidies, NEVs / ICE vehicle must exceed Rmb187,500 / Rmb216,700 toreceive the maximum amount. For illustration, an Rmb80,000 NEV, which receivedan Rmb20,000 central government subsidy in 2025, will only get Rmb9,600 (12%of its selling price) in 2026. This translates to an Rmb10,400 increase in the buyer's China's 2026 passenger vehicle wholesale volume projected to decline 5% YoY We forecast a 5% year-on-year decrease in China's passenger vehicle wholesale 30 December 2025Autos & Auto Technology volume for full-year 2026, reaching 28.9 million units, down from an estimated 30.4million units in 2025. Key drivers include: (1) Retail sales decline of 5% YoY in 2026Edue to the reduction of favorable government policies, which will likely hitwholesale sales by 1.16 million units or 4%. (2) Dealer-level restocking of anestimated 0.4 million units in 2026 vs. an estimated restocking of 1.5 million units In particular, the projected 5% year-on-year decline in domestic retail sales isspecifically attributed to two primary factors: (a) the previously discussed reductionin trade-in subsidies for mid-to-low-priced vehicles in 2026, and (b) headwinds January 2026 sales anticipated to see temporary recovery following subsidyresumption It is important to note that local government-funded used-car trade-in subsidyprograms began to cease in some cities during Q4 2025 due to exhausted funds. Forinstance, the Shenzhen municipal government discontinued its program from However, with the renewed vehicle trade-in subsidy policy for 2026 extending theprogram, we anticipate a temporary return to positive YoY growth for nationwideretail sales in January 2026, driven by the release of some pent-up demand. We Potential upside risk to ICE demand with vehicle purchase tax reduction We see a potential upside risk to auto sector demand in 2026 if the vehicle purchasetax is reduced for ICE vehicle purchases in 2H 2026 (from 10% to 5%), as thegovernment has historically implemented this policy following two consecutivequarters of vehicle sales decline. In detail, the ICE vehicle purchase tax has beenreduced to support the auto industry on three occasions: (a) in 2009-2010, thegovernment reduced the purchase tax on smaller passenger vehicles (engine sizebelow 1.6L) to 5% / 7.5% in 2009 / 2010 respectively; (b) this policy was re- Preferring names with overseas exposure and mix improvement We compile a two-dimensional stock picking framework – overseas exposure andproduct mix changes. Among listed car makers, we like Chery and Great Wall,which excel on these criteria: (a) Overseas exposure: Overseas markets generallyoffer not only higher volume growth but also high profitability for Chinese automakers. Following an estimated 16% YoY export volume increase in 2025, we 30 December 2025Autos & Auto Technology Thus we prefer names with large overseas exposure as auto makers' overseasbusiness growth is crucial amidst an anticipated 2026 domestic downturn. (b)Product mix changes: As Chinese auto makers' profitability might face a fewheadwinds in 2026 (like volume drop, more promotion, rising battery cost, etc), theproduct mix improvement turned out to be a key positive factor to offset the sector Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or v