全球必需消费品行业：2026 年 26 大关键假设情景分析

26 'What Ifs' for 2026 We've tasked the Global Consumer team to come up withtheir highest-conviction 'What If' ideas. 2025 was challengingto navigate, and we expect the same in 2026, making a 'WhatIf' mindset even more relevant. We have compiled an eclecticmix of stocks and themes from both sides of the Atlantic. European Consumer Staples Warren Ackerman+44 (0)20 3134 1903warren.ackerman@barclays.comBarclays, UK Laurence Whyatt+44 (0)20 7773 5324laurence.whyatt@barclays.comBarclays, UK Not just a 2026 outlook piece: We've tasked the Global Consumer, Retail and Luxury teamsto come up with their highest-conviction 'What If' ideas.We hope this approach provesthought-provoking as a way to frame the year ahead. A wide range of views:InBeverages, we examine potential upside and disruptions – forexample, could the2026 FIFA World Cupspark an acceleration in beer sales across NorthAmerica? We also ponder a high-profile leadership wildcard at a spirits major (“What ifSir DaveLewistransforms Diageo?”) and consider whether a brewing giant mightunlock value by listingits fast-growing India business. Alex Sloane+44 (0)20 3555 0645alexander.sloane@barclays.comBarclays, UK U.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, US InFood, with raw material prices rolling over, the outlook for pricing will be a major topic in2026 and we discusswhat if European pricing reverts to deflationas wasoftenthe case pre-Covid, and identify who might be mostaffected.We also revisit the competitiveness ofBig Foodin the US, asking whether packaged food companies can finallyhalt market-share lossestosmaller rivals in 2026afteryears of ceding ground. On a related note, we discuss whetherPepsiCo can revitalise its Frito-Lay (snacks) divisionandadapt its portfolioto reignitegrowth. From a European Food stock specific perspective, we consider whetherNestle couldde-lever fasterthan the market thinks and discuss some of its portfolio options. We alsohypothesize "What if theStraussGroup turnaround is faster than anticipated". U.S. FoodAndrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668andrew.lazar@barclays.comBCI, US European Luxury Goods & SpecialtyRetail InConsumer Ingredients, the big debate centres aroundvolume growthand we ask "What ifConsumer Ingredients volume growth outperformance vs Staples rebuilds andrestores itspremium valuationin 2026". We also consider the industry’s response to health and regulationtrends – for instance,what ifUS food manufacturersdeliver on pledges to remove artificialcoloursand other additives? Could such reformulationeffortsaccelerate in 2026, and whatwould the implications be for ingredients suppliers and brand sales? Carole Madjo+44 (0)20 3134 3168carole.madjo@barclays.comBarclays, UK Data ScienceChris Stevens(iii)+44 (0)20 3555 1239chris.r.stevens@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. (iii)This author is a member of the EMEA Equity Research department who may publish equityand debt research (v)This author is a registered US equity research analyst who is subject to US FINRA Rule 2241and who may write debt research under FINRA Rule 2242. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 123.Completed: 04-Jan-26, 15:49 GMTReleased: 05-Jan-26, 04:00 GMTRestricted - External InHome & Personal Care, we consider looming challenges beyond the usual competitivedynamics: one scenario examines what happens if simmeringproduct-safety litigation(around chemical hair relaxers) gains traction, while another assesses the impact of impendingPFAS “forever chemical” banson consumers and manufacturers. These legal/regulatoryheadwinds could pose significant risks to certain companies if they were to materialise. ForBeiersdorf,the performance of its biggest brand Nivea is topical and we discuss "What ifNivea's pricing turns negative in 2026". In the US, we ponder "What if the Street valuesChurchand Dwight'sarchitected organic sales". InTobacco, our team considers a potential strategic pivot as consumers down-trade: willcigarette makersshifttheir brand positioning to deep-discount labelsin the US, and if so,who wins or loses? We also imagine a “best case” year for one major player (“What ifthestarsalign for BATin 2026?”), examining how favourable regulatory, pricing, and competitivedevelopments could drive outperformance. Outside of Staples, the scope broadens to retail and luxury: inFood Retail, we ask whether thelong expansion of theUS grocery store footprint is