供应扰动推升锡价近历史高位

for this increase is the continuous release of price elasticity due to supply disruptions amid heightened market sentiment.1) According to SMM, Indonesia's supply may still be constrained in 1Q26 due to the impact of RKAB approvals. As of Jan 7, 2026, the tin 2) According to Ministry of Foreign Affairs, In Africa, political instability and underdeveloped infrastructure continue to limit tin mine productionand exports, with current risks remaining high. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Jan 8, 2026, the Chinese Embassy in theDemocratic Republic of Congo issued another security situation update, indicating that M23 has been frequently using heavy weapons in SouthKivu Province, attacking military and civilian facilities, causing numerous casualties and a large number of displaced refugees. Additionally, recent trading volume on Indonesia's two major exchanges was 0 来价格弹性的进一步释放。据SMM，印尼由于受RKAB审批影响，一季度供应或仍将受到限制，1月截至7日，印尼两大交易所锡成交量为0。 （金）大使馆再发安全形势通报，表明M23近期在南基伍省等地区频繁使用重型武器，对军民设施发起攻击，造成大量人员伤亡和大批难民流离失所。此外，近期卢阿拉巴省科卢韦齐市等采矿行业重点城市举行游行示威活动。Outlook市场展望 Currently, the domestic mine tightening situation remains unresolved, constraining refined tin production, and tin concentrateprocessing fees are also low. According to SMM, as of Jan 9, 2026, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was12,000 yuan/t. Furthermore, China's cumulative refined tin production from 1-12M25 was 0.1787mn tonnes, down YoY by 2.8%; the single-monthproduction in Dec 2025 was 1.60 tonnes, down YoY by 1.8%. Amid supply tightness, recent tin inventories have decreased. As of Jan 9, 2026 domestic tin ingot social inventory stood at 7,478t, down 1,042t from the previous period; by the end of Dec 2025, domestic tin ingot companyinventory was 3,950t, down 1,400t from the previous period and 2,070t YoYLooking ahead: 1) On the supply side, ongoing mine tightening will lead to raw material shortages for smelters and low tin concentrateprocessing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production. 2) On the demand side, the US and Europe are stillin interest rate cutcycles, combined with fiscal expansion, which is expected to have a positive impact on the global economy. Moreover, the semiconductor sectorcontinues to grow rapidly, and consumption in photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to rise further. Considering the need to rebuild theTherefore, we believe that tin prices may exhibit a strong and volatile trend, with a short-term focus on the SHFE Tin fluctuationrange of 350,000-400,000 yuan/t. If prices break through this range, the upper limit could shift to around 450,000-460,000 yuan/t. Werecommend investors to continue holding long positions or to add to them on dips. 目前，国内矿端紧缩状况未解，并制约着精炼锡产量，锡精矿加工费也维持低位。根据SMM，截至1月9日，云南40%品味锡精矿加工费（TC）为12000元／吨。此外，2025年1-12月中国精炼锡累计产量为17.87万吨，同比-2.8%；12月单月产量为1.60吨，同比-1.8%。供应紧张情况下，近期锡库存有所去化，截至1月9日，国内锡锭社会库存为7478吨，环比-1042吨；截至12月底，国内锡锭企业库存为3950吨，环比-1400吨，同比-2070吨。展望未来，供给方面，矿端持续紧缩，导致冶炼厂原料短缺且锡精矿加工费维持低位，精炼锡产量难以提升。需求方面，美欧仍处在降息周期中，叠加财政端扩张，预计将对全球经济产生积极效应。此外，半导体行业维持高增，光伏、新能源车等领域消费继续上升，再考虑到产业链库存需要重建，将使得锡锭需求持续增长。因此，我们认为锡价或表现为震荡偏强态势，短线关注沪锡波动区间35-40万元/吨，若价格得到突破，区间上限或进一步上移至45-46万元/吨左右，建议投资者继续多持或逢低多配。风险因素：主产区供应扰动；全球经济衰退；美联储降息预期反复。Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs SMM CITIC FuturesImportant Notice:This report is not a service under futures trading consulting business. The views and information contained herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司（以下简称“中信期货）拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性