人工智能是否存在泡沫？明年会破裂吗？

Is there an AI bubble and will it pop next year? 人工智能是否存在泡沫？明年会破裂吗？ Experts discuss what investors need to know for2026at the annual FT Money roundtable 专家们在英国《⾦融时报》年度理财圆桌会议上探讨2026年投资者须知要点 Nathan Brooker内森·布鲁克 Published已发布DEC132025 Get ahead with daily markets updates.Join the FT's WhatsApp channel 每⽇获取市场动态，领先⼀步。加⼊英国《⾦融时报》WhatsApp频道 Anyone with an upturned glass to the door of the conference room we met in last week could havebeen forgiven for thinking we were rehearsing a scene fromMacbeth. 上周若有⼈在会议室⻔⼝驻⾜聆听，或许会误以为我们在排演《⻨克⽩》中的场景。 “Bubble.” “Bubble.” “No.” “Not yet.” “No trouble.” “泡沫。”“泡沫。”“不。”“还未形成。”“不⾜为虑。” In fact, I had asked the panel of five experts gathered for FT Money’s annual investmentroundtable the Big One: whether the valuations of AI companies are irrationally overinflated — andwhat were the chances it would all go pop next year? 实际上，我向参加《⾦融时报·理财》年度投资圆桌会议的五位专家抛出了核⼼问题：⼈⼯智能公司的估值是否已被⾮理性⾼估？这⼀切在明年破裂的可能性有多⼤？ Before a twinkling Christmas tree, with the dome of St Paul’s framed in the picture window behindit, we discussed what retail investors should look out for in 2026. ⼀棵闪烁的圣诞树前，背景落地窗映衬着圣保罗⼤教堂的穹顶，我们在此探讨散户投资者2026年需要关注哪些重点。 Joining the discussion were FT columnists Stuart Kirk and Katie Martin; Simon Edelsten, a fundmanager at Goshawk Asset Management; Niamh Brodie-Machura, chief investment officer of theequities team at Fidelity International; and Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of the global fixedincome, currency and commodities team at JPMorgan Asset Management. 参与讨论的有英国《⾦融时报》专栏作家斯图尔特·柯克与凯蒂·⻢丁；Goshawk资产管理公司基⾦经理⻄蒙·埃德尔森；富达国际股票团队⾸席投资官妮雅姆·布罗迪-⻢库拉；以及摩根⼤通资产管理全球固定收益、外汇和⼤宗商品团队⾸席投资官伊恩·斯蒂利。 Hands up,who thinks AI is a bubble? 举⼿表决，谁认为⼈⼯智能存在泡沫？ Perhaps unsurprisingly, the room was divided along professional lines — with the two journalistshappy to use the B-word, and those responsible for running clients’ money more optimistic aboutthe state of the market. 或许不⾜为奇的是，现场观点按职业分野泾渭分明——两位记者直⾔不讳使⽤"泡沫"⼀词，⽽掌管客户资⾦的资管⼈⼠则对市场状况更为乐观。 “There are two things to know about bubbles, historically,” said Edelsten. “The first one is thatbubbles are notorious because everyone is a buyer at the top.” The current level of concern anddissent was absent, he argued, from the tulip mania, for example, or the crash of 1929. “关于泡沫历史，需要了解两点，”埃德尔斯坦表示，“⾸先是泡沫之所以臭名昭著，是因为所有⼈都在顶部买进。”他举例称，不论是郁⾦⾹狂热还是1929年股灾，当时都缺乏当前这种普遍的担忧和分歧。 “But the more important, less cynical point, is the valuation point,” he said. “I think it’s verydifferent from 2000, when basicallyeverythingwas nuts: there was no valuation basis for a hugenumber of very large companies, across Wall Street and Europe.” That is not true of the best AIstocks today. “但更重要且不那么愤世嫉俗的观点在于估值，”他补充道，“我认为这与2000年截然不同——当时华尔街和欧洲⼤量巨头企业完全脱离估值基础，简直疯狂。”⽽当今顶尖的AI概念股并⾮如此。 Nvidia has a price-to-forward-earnings ratio of about 25; Amazon and Microsoft are in the high20s — not cheap, but nowhere near as wild as some telecoms companies at the height of thedotcom boom. 英伟达的远期市盈率约为25倍，亚⻢逊和微软则接近30倍——虽不便宜，但远不及互联⽹泡沫巅峰时期某些电信公司的疯狂估值。 “These are extremely strong companies from a fundamental perspective,” said Brodie-Machura.“The demand is across all parts of the supply chain, and it is in excess of what can be supplied atthe moment, which means you have volume growth and pricing power at the same time.” “从基本⾯看，这些企业实⼒极为强劲，”布罗迪-⻢库拉分析道，“需求遍及供应链所有环节，且当前供给能⼒⽆法满⾜，这意味着它们同时享有销量增⻓和定价权优势。” The price-earnings multiples of the largest stocks are less extreme than inprevious bubbles Height of bar indicates the size of stock in main index Oct 2025Tech Bubble (2000)Japan Bubble (1989) Stealey said that, from a bondholder’s point of view, he was “pretty comfortable” with the state ofthe market — though he made a distinction between some of the hyperscalers with huge cash pilesand companies such asOracle, which have much higher debt levels. 斯泰利表示，从债券持有⼈的⻆度来看，他对市场现状"相当放⼼"，不过他区分了那些拥有巨额现⾦的超⼤规模企业和甲⻣⽂等债务⽔平⾼得多的公司。 “And I know we had this indigestion over the past six weeks or so, where we’ve had big issuancefrom Meta [and Alphabet], and it did cause spreads to widen a little bit — but, to us, that’s a buyingopportunity,” he said. “These are very highly rated [bonds], and there is liquidity sloshing aroundin the system, and people are desperate for yield at the moment.” "我知道过去六周左右我们经历了些消化不良，Meta[和Alphabet]进⾏了⼤规模发债，确实导致利差⼩幅扩⼤——但在我们看来，这正是买⼊良机，"他表示。"这些债券评级极⾼，且系统内有⼤量流动性在涌动，眼下⼈们正疯狂追逐收益率。" Next year, Fidelity analysts predict 28 per cent growth in tech sector earnings and for growth tobroaden out. 富达分析师预测，科技⾏业明年收益将增⻓28%，且增⻓势头将向更⼴泛领域扩散。 Nobody wants to be the naive investor that got in at the top, said Brodie-Machura. “But thennobody wants to be the cynic sitting on the side... at a point in time where many participantsthink this may be the biggest inflection point for human productivity since the industrialrevolution.” 没⼈想成为在顶部接盘的天真投资者，"布罗迪-⻢库拉说。"但同样没⼈愿意做个冷眼旁观者……在这个被众多参与者视为⾃⼯业⾰命以来⼈类⽣产⼒最⼤转折点的时刻。 “The stakes are really high,” she added. “If it doesn’t work, the risk of capital loss is real. If it doeswork, t