2026年展望：趋势线覆盖标题

2026 Outlook Trendlines over headlines Trendlines over headlines When negative headlines prevail, readers often reach reflexively for Murphy’sLaw and a “Well, that figures” shrug. Even good news in abundance can prompt asquint to find the negatives that must be in there somewhere. 2025 certainly created lots of headline fatigue around rapid and sometimesabrupt changes, both in government policies and in the technological revolutionthat is artificial intelligence (AI). But we are looking through the headlines and seeeconomic and policy trends that should drive the economy and capital markets in2026. An important goal of our 2026 Outlook report is to present those contoursand explain how we see them as not only durable, but also reinforcing each other.To be blunt, it seems time to give old Murphy a rest. Policy changes may remain prominent, particularly the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s)path of further interest-rate cuts. But we are looking past the headlines aboutmembership on the Fed’s Board of Governors, to focus on the historically rarebut positive signal of rate cuts in an already growing economy. Likewise, we seetariff impacts as diffused and less potent for markets than the positive duo ofderegulation and tax cuts that are already in place. Darrell L. Cronk, CFA® President,Wells Fargo Investment InstituteChief Investment Officer,Wealth & Investment Management Spending to develop AI also looks set to grow and broaden across sectors, in ourview. Some market volatility could develop as investors periodically test whetherAI-related profitability is still meeting expectations. In such cases, we expect newopportunities across a widening group of sectors, as the transformation that AI isleading touches almost every area of our lives. “Successfulinvesting takestime, discipline,and patience.No matter howgreat the talent oreffort, some thingsjust take time.” These trends could be mutually reinforcing. Business tax cuts for capital spendingshould promote business expansion and modernization. Lower borrowing costscould reinforce this expansion to promote hiring and raise worker productivity.In turn, workers who can produce more in a day can lower average costs andlimit price inflation. These positive convergences should increase equity marketbreadth, reinforce margin and earnings growth, and bolster business andconsumer spending. 2026 may still bring market pullbacks, and sometimes the headlines do bringgenuine negative surprises. But our outlook for the next year hinges on someunusually complementary trends already in place. The following pages offer ourhighest-conviction investment ideas around this theme, and we will watch fornew opportunities as the year progresses. — Warren Buffett Page 2 | 2026 Outlook Table of contents Pages 4–5 Economic and market forecasts Pages 6–8 Global economy Economic growth signals over noise We anticipate the U.S. economy will gather momentum in 2026, as favorable policy tailwindsand durable investment trends converge to overcome residual challenges from trade andimmigration uncertainties. Pages 9–13 Global equities Focus on the durable themes We expect strong fundamentals to not only offset geopolitical risks but also reinforce eachother, accelerating earnings growth and lifting equities through year-end 2026. Pages 14–17 Global fixed income Yield stability over headline hype Despite conflicting signals from slow job growth but a strengthening economy, we see theFed maintaining a downward rate trend, with steepening yield spreads between short- andlong-term rates offering investment opportunities. Pages 18–20 Global real assets Limited commodity opportunities We expect further price gains in both Precious and Industrial Metals during 2026, butrising crude oil supplies should restrain overall commodity returns for the year. Pages 21–23 Global alternative investments1 Reduce noise sensitivity Infrastructure investment and business capital spending are likely to foster recoveryacross a range of private market strategies, while also boosting growth, merger andacquisitions (M&A) activity, and opportunities in select hedge fund strategies. Top portfolio ideas Pages 24–27 Five investment ideas for 2026 1. Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and are only open to “accredited investors” or “qualified investors” within th e meaning of U.S. securities laws.Please see pages 29 – 31 for important definitions and risk considerations. Economic and market forecasts Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Bloomberg. All latest numbers from Bloomberg as of November 28, 2025. Targets for 2026 are based on forecasts byWells Fargo Investment Institute as of December 9, 2025 and provide a forecast direction over a tactical horizon.Average percent change from the same period a yearago, unless otherwise noted.GDP = Gross Domestic Product. CPI = Consumer Price Index. Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter, Q3 = third quarter, Q4 = fourth