中国基础原材料2026年GIR展望

你知道中国消费了全球超过一半的主要金属吗？这一惊人数据凸显了其在全球大宗商品市场的关键作用，使得中国基础原材料 2026 年 GIR 展望成为必读之作。由陈翠娜领导的中国大宗商品团队预计，今年大宗商品需求将保持稳定但温和增长，同比增长幅度在-1.3%至+2.0%之间，预计 2025 年下半年将连续改善。虽然下游需求因以旧换新刺激措施而有所放缓，但好消息是房地产行业和贸易关税的风险已基本缓解。然而，2026 年真正的差异化因素将是供应端。 GIR highlights three critical themes shaping the supply landscape: GIR 强调了塑造供应格局的三个关键主题： 1.Supply Discipline and Responses:Aluminum faces challenged discipline due to strong pricing,leading to accelerated project announcements and an expected downside inflection in SHFE spreads in2026. Lithium shows signs of accelerating supply, with global output projected to increase by 22% in2026, potentially easing a tight market in the latter half of the year. Copper supply is expected to remaintight, despite a gradual recovery from significant mine disruptions experienced in 2025. 供应纪律与应对：铝业因价格强劲而面临严峻监管，导致项目公告加速，2026 年 SHFE 价差预计出现下行转折。锂供应显示出加速增长的迹象，预计 2026 年全球产量将增长 22%，可能缓解下半年市场紧张的局面。尽管从 2025 年经历的重大矿山中断中逐步恢复，铜供应预计仍将紧张。 2.Anti-Involution Policy:This multi-year strategic effort aims to manage oversupplied segments.Meaningful progress is evident in cement and coal, with cement clinker capacity expected to be cut by30% by 2027, improving utilization and margins. Conversely, progress in the steel sector is slower thananticipated, suggesting extended depressed margins and elevated Chinese steel exports. 反内卷政策：这项为期多年的战略努力旨在管理供过于求的细分市场。水泥和煤炭领域取得了显著进展，预计到 2027 年水泥熟料产能将减少 30%，从而提升利用率和利润率。相反，钢铁行业进展低于预期，显示利润率长期低迷及中国钢铁出口增加。 3.Acquisitions and Asset Injections:A notable rise in acquisitions and asset injections by large State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) is observed across various sectors, both domestically and internationally.While near-term earnings impacts are expected to be limited, these activities signal strategicrepositioning by producers, influencing long-term equity outlooks. 收购与资产注入：大型国有企业（SOEs）在国内外各行业的收购和资产注入显著增加。虽然短期盈利影响预计有限，但这些活动表明生产商正在进行战略性重新定位，影响长期股权前景。 Commodity and Equity Views:GIR maintains a positive stance on copper and gold, forecasting goldprices to reach US$4,900/oz by December 2026, supported by continued central bank purchases. Cementand coal also receive a more positive outlook. Conversely, a cautious view is held for steel, aluminum,lithium, and paper packaging. From an equity perspective, Chinese copper names appear attractive, whilelithium names are considered less favorable due to implied prices significantly above current spot rates.Recent rating changes includeupgrades for Chinacoal-H/A to Buy and Yankuang-A to Neutral, 商品与股票观点：GIR 对铜和黄金持积极态度，预计黄金价格将在 2026 年 12 月达到每盎司4900 美元，支持央行持续采购。水泥和煤炭的前景也更为积极。相反，钢、铝、锂和纸包装则持谨慎态度。从股票角度看，中国铜业股票具有吸引力，而锂业股票因隐含价格远高于现行现货价格，被认为不那么理想。近期评级调整包括将中国煤 H/A 上调至买入，延光 A上调至中性，同时将青铁-H/A 下调至卖出，宝钢下调至中性。