德国mro限制可能干扰欧洲的国防目标

What armed forces, defense contractors, andpolicymakers can learn from civil maintenance, repair, Cornelius HerzogSusan ElfstenJonas Gorlo CONTENTS Executive Summary3 Europe is Rearming The MRO Supply Chain as a Barrier to Defense Readiness Adapt, Don’t Copy: Why Defense MRO Needs a Tailored Approach Conclusion20 22 Methodology and Sources EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Europe is rearming at an unprecedented scale, with more than €800 billioncommitted to defense by 2030. The real test will be whether these investmentstranslate into operationally ready forces. Today, defense readiness remains THREE STRUCTURAL CONSTRAINTS TO THEMRO SUPPLY CHAIN Three structural levers are critical for closing the gap in Germany’s defenseMRO supply chain and converting the largest budget in decades into true 1.Skilled workforce gap:Future MRO requirements are estimated to demandan additional 35,000 to 45,000 technical MRO specialists by 2029. 2.Spare parts and inventory availability:Billions of euros in capital needto be tied up in inventory for spare parts and materials to buffer againstunpredictable demand. We estimate that €7 billion to €9 billion in inventory 3.MRO network build out:The current network is constrained by agingand fragmented facilities, necessitating an estimated investment in LEARNING FROM THE CIVIL SECTOR MRO PLAYBOOK:ADAPT, DON’T COPY, FOR DEFENSE Civil sector benchmarks from MRO-heavy industries demonstrate thatfleet availability rates of 80-98% are possible when following a proven MROsupply chain playbook. For defense, these lessons must be adapted — not SEVEN SHIFTS REQUIRED IN DEFENSE MRO SUPPLY CHAINS Moving defense MRO supply chains to the next level means rethinking every core dimension:organization structure, workforce development, process and technological modernization, andresilience across the network. Real progress requires shifting from siloed, manual, and reactive By focusing on these integrated shifts rather than isolated fixes, defense organizationscan ensure that new investments deliver measurable improvements in operationalreadiness and resilience. Benchmarks that suggest such targeted changes can boost fleet DECIDING WHETHER TO MAKE OR PARTNER Achieving this step change in defense readiness requires a dual approach: continuousimprovement for quick wins and momentum, alongside targeted transformation foraddressing deeper, structural bottlenecks. By balancing practical, near-term actions withbold, longer-term changes, armed forces can ensure increased investments translate intoreal operational capability today and into the future. Wherever internal capabilities are EUROPE ISREARMING Europe is entering its most significant period of defense investment since the end oftheCold War, with more than €800 billion committed to defense spending by 2030 (see Exhibit 1). Despite major procurement programs and new weapon systems, the fargreater challenge is ensuring these systems are available, operational, THE MRO SUPPLY CHAIN IS THE REAL DEFENSEREADINESS CHALLENGE Consider the German army: Over eight years, defense readiness for key systems has remainedstubbornly low, often fluctuating significantly below 70% (see Exhibit2). Persistant volatility For example, readiness rates for core assets such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs),aircraft, and ships have varied by as much as 30 percentage points from year to year. Whilethese figures highlight persistent challenges, it is important to acknowledge that some keysystems have improved. For example, Eurofighter availability has more than doubled from REAL-WORLD READINESS: SELECTED SYSTEM SNAPSHOTSAND IMPROVEMENTS Both cases highlight the systemic nature of MRO challenges, which affect air, sea, and landforces. SUBMARINE 212A Germany’s fleet of six 212A submarines has repeatedly faced extreme availabilityissues.At times, only one or two vessels, if any, were operational. This is mainly due to the need for custom-manufactured spare parts and the aging fleet.4,5Recognizing these problems,the Bundeswehr recently entered a strategic partnership with Norway to jointly procure EUROFIGHTER As the backbone of Germany’s air defense, the Luftwaffe operates 138 Eurofighters.Recent figures show that 96 aircraft (about 70%) are currently defense-ready — a majorimprovement over a low of 39 (30%) in previous years. Improving spare part availability THE MRO SUPPLY CHAINAS A BARRIER TO Delivering high levels of defense readiness requires much more than acquiring newequipment. The real challenge lies in building and maintaining an effective MRO supply With the proposed “Bundeshaushalt 2025,” the German federal budget for 2025, Germany’sdefense budget is set for a significant increase — from €71 billion to €86 billion (includingthe “Sondervermögen,” Germany’s special fund) — to help the Bundeswehr meet NATO Oliver Wyman analysis suggests that for Germany alone, annual MRO expenditure couldreach €13 billion to €17 billion by 2029, nearly d