亚行全球贸易融资缺口调查（英）

KEY POINTS ADB Global Trade Finance Gap Survey •The estimated globaltrade finance gap remainsunchanged at $2.5 trillion andhas not grown in proportionto growth in trade. Ankita PandeyRelationship Manager, Trade andSupply Chain DivisionPrivate Sector Operations DepartmentADB Steven BeckDirector, Trade andSupply Chain DivisionPrivate Sector Operations DepartmentAsian Development Bank (ADB) •Demand for trade financeis expected to increase dueto trade diversification andsupply chain reorganization. Alexander MalaketConsultant, Trade andSupply Chain DivisionPrivate Sector Operations DepartmentADB Alisa DiCaprioDirector of Industry EngagementSwift •Insufficient trade financemay prolong disruption andimpede opportunities arisingfrom trade reorganization. •Sustainability remainsrelevant to the supply oftrade finance. •Support for financingsmall and medium-sizedenterprises (SMEs) mayhave expanded. INTRODUCTION The global trade finance gap,1first estimated by the Asian Development Bank (ADB)at about $1.5 trillion in 2015, has grown steadily. By 2023, it had reached $2.5 trillion, andremains at that level in this 2025 survey.2 This datapoint is the only global benchmark of unmet demand for trade finance. It isintended to help policymakers, banks, and development institutions understand the scaleand distribution of the gap.3These findings are relevant not only to financial marketsbut to developmental outcomes:trade and development opportunities are lostwhen firms cannot access trade finance. There may be economically sound reasonswhy trade finance requests are rejected. However, thepersistence of significant gapsacross categories of firms and countriessheds light on systemic obstacles, which theglobal trade finance gap study highlights.If unaddressed, these obstacleswillcontinuetoimpede development objectivesand inclusive economic growth.4 ISBN 978-92-9277-621-3 (print)ISBN 978-92-9277-622-0 (PDF)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (PDF)Publication Stock No. BRF250557-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF250557-2 Now in its 9th edition, theADB Global Trade Finance Gap Surveyispublished at a point of inflection in global trade. It offers insight intohow the characteristics of trade finance funding had already begunto adjust in advance of the volatility of 2025. Some new insightsof the 2025 survey include: (i) the expectation that demand fortrade finance will increase, (ii) the approaches to sustainability areshifting, (iii) the impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) have becomemore apparent, and (iv) the signs of waning US-dollar dominance inglobal trade have gained some traction. This result is in line with the regional and national trade finance gapestimates reported in financial markets. The estimate is derived from a survey of over 110 trade financeproviders. It is believed that the 110 respondents might account for asignificant share of total global trade finance, up to a third, althoughthe total size of the trade finance market remains unknown. While the survey collected data from 2023 and 2024 to estimatethe global trade finance gap, views and opinions of respondentswere collected over the first half of 2025. 2025 EDITION: UPDATES TO THE SURVEYMETHODOLOGY The 2025 ADB Trade Finance GapIn the 2023 edition, the $2.5 trillion global gap represented about 10.6% of global trade flows.6In this 2025 edition, trade flows in 2023and 2024 had increased, which lowered the percentage of globaltrade represented by the gap to around 10% of merchandise tradeflows.7,8While the global trade finance gap is slightly lower relativeto the size of global tradein the previous study,unmet demandpersists, even as financial institutions report increased efforts tosupport SMEs and explore new forms of supply chain finance.9 Several changes were introduced to update the survey for 2025.The first was to validate findings by referencing other authoritativedata sources. Several regional trade finance gap studies haveemerged. While each of these studies uses different base data, allreport similar gap magnitudes, suggesting that ADB’s global gapnumber is aligned with regional studies and provides a reasonableestimate. The second change was to convene a committee of experts.5Thiscommittee includes representatives from all parts of thetrade finance community, including payments, forfaiting, factoring,and regional expertise, as well as academia and internationalorganizationsother than ADB,including the World TradeOrganization (WTO). These experts reviewed the survey questionsfor relevance, tightened the scope of the survey, and adjusted themethodology used in the analysis. Notably, the gap has not worsened despite uncertain marketconditions during the survey period—including tight liquidity andgeopolitical uncertainty. This suggests that trade finance is aninstrument that firms use to mitigate risks in periods of greaterinstability and volatility. Other Trade Finance Gap EstimatesRegional and national trade finance gap rep