欧洲电池制造业未来的两种展望

Building a competitive local supply AUTHORS WOLFGANG BERNHARTSenior Partner A local battery value chain is crucial for enhancing Europe's strategicindependence, but the battery industry in Europe is under threatfrom low-cost, subsidized imports - jeopardizing its viability. DENNIS GALLUSPrincipal ISKENDER DEMIRSenior Consultant Batteries are a key differentiating technology for electric mobility,the energy transition and the electrification of the economy. Producing batteries in Europe, however, comes with significantly higher costs thanimporting them from China due to higher investment in factories and elevated The battery industry in Europe faces a fundamental test: whether it can translateprojected demand growth into a competitive advantage, or whether production will Europe is expected to become one of the world's largest markets for lithium-ionbatteries, with demand projected to reach c. 1.5 TWh and a market volume of Europe is expected to become one of the world's largest Expected battery market demand and market volume Numerous projects across other stages of the battery value chain are either alreadyin operation, under construction, or planned for further expansion. Our analysis Despite this potential, the industry faces considerable challenges. Structural costdisadvantages compared to Chinese imports, higher than expected ramp-up costs Furthermore, while many projects have been announced in recent years, asubstantial share has failed, been discontinued, or postponed. This raises a The battery industry in Europe risks mirroring the solar sector, where much of thevalue creation now occurs outside of Europe. Addressing these challenges and Major challenges and barriers The battery industry in Europe faces multiple significant challenges. Local productionsuffers from structural cost disadvantages, with battery cells estimated to costc.9-11 EUR/kWh more than imported cells from China for fully ramped-up factories,compounded by high CAPEX and OPEX. Uncertainties in demand and technology, aninexperienced workforce, geopolitical tensions, regulatory ambiguities, andinvestment hesitancy further complicate the landscape for both established playersand new entrants, threatening the viability and growth of a local industry. Structural cost disadvantage Locally produced battery cells are projected to face a significant cost disadvantage,estimated at c. 9-11 EUR/kWh and c. 15-20%, respectively (steady-state production),compared to cells produced and imported from China. This gap stems fromstructural disadvantages in CAPEX and OPEX, that affect both new domesticentrants and established Asian players producing in Europe. Battery cells produced in Europe face a significant Cost comparison of cells produced in Europe vs. imported cells from China The CAPEX disadvantage is estimated to be at least 50% to 100% higher forequipment and about 200% to 400% higher for building infrastructure, even for Asian Furthermore, significant overcapacity of cell production in China (c. 100%), hasintensified price competition, with prices approaching marginal costs (up to 30 EUR/kWh for LFP cells). This situation presents considerable challenges for both Regulatory challenges and uncertainties Regulatory conditions in Europe threaten investment security, constrain rapidscaling, and increase costs. The core issue is a regulatory environment that is •Structural weaknesses and policy uncertainty The absence of a coherent, EU-wide battery industry strategy has led tofragmented regulation and planning uncertainty. Many measures, such as the NetZero Industries Act (NZIA) and the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), lack A central challenge is that current regulations are often not tailored to cellfactories. Fire safety and building codes are major cost drivers, frequentlyprescribing detailed technical solutions rather than performance-based •Weak incentives and lack of targeted support Current instruments, such as the CRMA, Innovation Fund, Battery Booster, andIndustrial Decarbonization Accelerator, are relevant, but their impact is diluted by The allocation of incentives is often insufficiently targeted, leading to situationswhere support is squandered or fails to benefit the most promising players. "A robust localbattery industry isessential forEurope's strategicindependence incritical sectors,reducing relianceon external sourcesand mitigating bureaucracy results in prolonged waiting periods for essential support - •Inadequate regulation and bureaucratic burden A central challenge is that current regulations are often not tailored to cellfactories. In some areas, specific rules are lacking or inappropriately adapted, At the same time, other areas are overregulated. Fire safety and building codesare major cost drivers, frequently prescribing detailed technical solutions rather The lack of harmonization between national and EU-wide standards exacerbatesthese challenges, with federal structures in Germany