中非共和国林业和矿业收入潜力

Policy Research Working Paper The Central African Republic’s Forestry Yannick BouterigeBaptiste MarquantPierre Mandon Policy Research Working Paper11209 Abstract This paper examines the untapped fiscal potential of naturalresources in the Central African Republic, focusing on theforestry and mining sectors. The paper analyzes current pro-duction levels, tax systems, and revenue generation in bothsectors, and identifies significant opportunities for increaseddomestic resource mobilization, currently estimated to bebetween CFAF 150 billion and CFAF 180 billion. Theforestry sector, contributing 2.6 percent of gross domesticproduct and 47.4 percent of exports, generated CFAF 3.7 billion to CFAF 9.1 billion, not accounting for potentialsecond round impacts on general taxation. The miningsector, primarily artisanal gold and diamond extraction,contributes 0.6 percent of gross domestic product and 46.5percent of exports, generating CFAF 2.0 billion in revenues(in 2022). The analysis of the 2024 mining code reformssuggests that revenues could potentially reach CFAF6.4 billion, primarily through new production-sharing The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those The Central African Republic’s Forestry and Mining Yannick Bouterige,1Baptiste Marquant,2Pierre Mandon3 Keywords:Natural resource taxation; Forestry revenue; Mining taxation; Resource monitoring;Central African Republic JEL Codes:H20; O13; O55; Q23; Q32 Introduction The Central African Republic (CAR) is rich in both renewable and nonrenewable natural resources, butit is one of the poorest countries worldwide and has low domestic revenue mobilization capacity,currently between CFAF 150 billion and CFAF 180 billion.4The forestry sector is concentrated in thesouthwest forest area: in 2023, the country produced 710,000 cubic meters of logs and 72,000 cubicmeters of processed wood (CDF, 2023). Artisanal mining also exists: 1.5 tons of gold and 118,000 caratsof diamonds have been extracted according to official data from Extractive Industries TransparencyInitiative (EITI, 2024). The extractive sector contributes 3.2 percent of CAR’s GDP. A country isconsidered resource-rich if products from the extractive sector comprise more than 20-25 percent of itstotal exports, according to both IMF and academic criteria (Lundgren, Thomas, and York 2013; The Central African Republic’s Forestry and Mining Revenue Potential Source: EITI reports, Cameroon, CAR, Chad, Congo Republic, Gabon, 2018-22 (available here:https://eiti.org/eiti-country-reports). 1. Forestry taxation 1.1. Forestry sector contribution The industrial forestry sector, which contributed 2.6 percent of GDP in 2021 (EITI, 2023) is particularlyconcentrated in CAR compared to other Congo Basin Forest countries. Timber production forests(3,700,000 ha) are granted to industrial operators in forest concessions called “Permis d’Exploitation et d’Aménagement” (PEA) in CAR. There are 15 relatively large concessions in the country (i.e., averagearea over 250,000 ha per PEA).5Only eight industrial groups share the 15 concessions, with nearly 70percent of the concessions being held by Asian and Lebanese working capital and non-national entities. Log production in CAR has varied over the last two decades due to various crises, includingpolitical/institutional events (2003, and the civil war since December 2012), economic downturns(2008), and health issues (COVID-19 in 2020-22). In 2023, log production is expected to return to thelevels seen in the early 2000s.The current production level remains well below the potential production,as industrial logging is concentrated on a few species. Log production reached nearly 710,000 m3in2023 (CDF, 2023), half of which is produced by two operators, namely SEFCA (a Lebanese-owned group) and Timberland Industries (linked to Taman, a Malaysian group). The subprime crisis in 2008and the severe political/institutional crisis led to particularly low production levels between 2009 and2016 (annual average below 355,000 m3logs). While current log production levels have returned to theirhistorical value, they remain well below the potential production estimated at between 2,600,000 and3,400,000 m3of logs for commercial species (FRMi, 2018). This gap between operators’ actual The log processing rate has never sustainably met the industrial legal obligations, set at 70 percent until2022, 80 percent in 2023, and 90 percent in 2024. This demonstrates the need for better support for theindustrial processing sector. It is not possible to calculate a precise national processing rate with theavailable pub