在该地区定居：1985年以来欧洲和中亚的城市化和洪水暴露趋势

SETTLINGIN THE ZONE Urbanization and FloodExposure Trends Since 1985 E U R O P EA N D C E N T R A L A S I A JUN RENTSCHLERJANA LEMKE 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reductionand Recovery (GFDRR). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this workdo not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions.This work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encouragesdissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for Attribution.Please cite this work as follows: Rentschler, J., J. Lemke, P. Avner. 2025. Settlingin the Zone: Urbanization and Flood Exposure Trends since 1985, Europe and Central Asia. Adaptations.If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer alongwith the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and Third-party content.The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the contentcontained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: CONTENTS Acknowledgments 2Urbanization in Europe and Central Asia 4 3Flood exposure and urbanization trends acrossthe ECA region Across the region, flood exposure continues to rise7Increases in flood exposure are driven by MICs, though baselineexposure is high in HICs8Flood-exposed settlement growth is rapid in some of ECA’s sub-regions10Exposure to all flood types is increasing12Trends vary substantially across – and even within – countries12 4Urban planning decisions in the face of risk and 15 climate change Appendices Appendix A. Summary of flood exposure and settlement extent Appendix B. Safe vs. flood-exposed settlement extent growth in References 23 Tables Table B2.1Flood hazard categorization applied in this studyTable 4.1Policy recommendations for different flood hazard scenarios Figures Figure ES.1Growth of built-up areas in ECA, by flood hazard category, 1985–2020viiiFigure ES.2Baseline flood exposure in 1985 and subsequent exposure trends,by countryixFigure ES.3District-level flood-exposed vs. safe growth across the ECA region,1985–2015xFigure 1.1Riverside settlement expansion over two decades in Tajikistan2Figure 2.1Urban expansion in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, 1985–20156Figure 3.1Growth of built-up areas in ECA, by flood hazard category, 1985–20208Figure 3.2Baseline flood exposure in 1985 and subsequent exposure trends,by country9 Box Box 2.1Data and methods ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared by Jun Rentschler, Paolo Avner, and Jana Lemke. It benefited from helpful feedback and guidance by Tom Farole, Jia Li,Christoph Pusch, Zahraa Saiyed, and Alanna Simpson. This report is based on an earlier global study published in 2023 (Rentschleret al. 2023. Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985. Nature. 622, p. 87–92). As such it also benefited from extensive peer reviewfeedback, suggestions and inputs by Louise Bernard, Thomas Corringham,Richard Damania, Vivien Deparday, Keith Garrett, Caroline Gevaert, Niels Holm- The report’s production was supported by Marlee Beers, Bouchra Belfqih, IsabelCarrera, Marcelle Djomo, and Heba Refaay. Lucy Southwood was the editor. It was supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery ACRONYMS ECAEurope and Central AsiaHIChigh-income countryLIClow-income countryMICmiddle-income country EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardousflood zones. This analysis considers spatial urbanization patterns and the Across the region, a continued trend of urban Compared to other world regions, average urban growth in Europe andCentral Asia (ECA) is relatively slow. Between 1985 and 2020, built-upareas in the ECA region have expanded by 80 percent from 194,000square kilometers in 1985 to 350,000 square kilometers in 2020. This rate However, national averages hide that some urban centers continue toexpand fast, even in countries with declining populations. Disaggregateddata on urbanization patterns show that urban population growth isoutpacing rural population growth in all ECA countries,2with larger cities With urban expansion comes