增长、结构转型与碳排放

Policy Research Working Paper Growth, Structural Transformationand Carbon Emissions Alen MulabdicGaurav NayyarKatherine Stapleton Policy Research Working Paper11214 Abstract The environmental Kuznets curve postulates an invert-ed-U relationship between environmental degradation andeconomic growth. And economic growth has been synon-ymous with structural transformation. How do patterns ofgrowth and structural transformation relate to carbon emis-sions? Based on data across almost 100 countries between knowledge-intensive services. The diminishing positiveassociation between emissions intensity and structuraltransformation towards these sectors is more discerniblefor developing economies compared with advanced econ-omies. Further, based on sector-specific carbon emissionsacross 66 countries between 1995 and 2018, we find evi-dence of convergence in the carbon emissions intensity of The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Growth, Structural Transformation, andCarbon Emissions Alen Mulabdic, Gaurav Nayyar, and Katherine Stapleton* Keywords: Structural transformation, economic growth, carbon emissions JEL classification: O14, O44, Q56 1.Introduction Economic growth has been historically associated with structural changes in national economies.The pioneering work of Fisher (1935), Clark (1940), Chenery (1960), and Kuznets (1971)postulated a set of stylized facts from empirical evidence relating to the now-industrializedcountries. They found that in the early stages of economic development, the agriculture sector’sshare in both output and employment is overwhelmingly large. Subsequently, as industrializationproceeds, the agriculture sector’s share falls, and the manufacturing sector’s share rises. Oncecountries have industrialized and reached an advanced stage of economic development, themanufacturing sector’s share declines, and the service sector’s share increases. This process ofindustrialization has been synonymous with economic growth owing to the movement of surplus This process of structural transformation has also been associated with the environmental Kuznetscurve that depicts an inverted-U relationship between environmental degradation (i.e., pollution)and economic development (i.e., per capita income). In other words, per capita income andpollution intensity go hand in hand at lower levels of per capita income while pollution intensitybegins to decline beyond a threshold level of per capita income. The structural change hypothesisconjectures that economies shift from low polluting agriculture to high polluting industry andeventually shift again to low polluting services (Panayotou 1993). Panayotou et al. (2000) Empirical analyses of how structural transformation interacts with the carbon intensity ofproduction are few and far between. Some empirical studies on advanced economies find that ahigher share of industry in total GDP is associated with higher environmental pressure or energyintensity (Suri and Chapman 1998, Hettige et al. 2000). Other studies find that shifts toward theservices sector have contributed to reducing the energy intensity of economic activity (Duro et al.2010, Mulder et al. 2014). A further set of studies use decomposition analyses to compare thecontributions of structural change and technological change in reducing the pollution intensity ofeconomic activity. On one hand, De Bruyn (1997) finds that structural change is much lessimportant than technological change in explaining the reduction of pollution in the Netherlands The literature cited above is limited to advanced economies. Moreover, several developingcountries have been characterized by unconventional patterns of structural transformation over the past three to four decades. The shares of manufacturing in employment and value added havepeaked at lower levels of per capita income than what occurred in the past in the now industrializedcountries (Rodrik 2016). Synonymously, much of the declining share of agriculture in employmentand value added has been offset by the services sector. The pattern of growth within the servicessector itself has also been changing. Eichengreen and Gupta (2013) identify two waves of servicessector growth, with the first wave consisting primarily of traditional services as countries movefrom “low” toward “middle” income status and the second wave comprising modern, knowledge-intensive services (in finance, communication, and business) as countries move from “middle” How do these patterns of growth and structural transformation relate to the carbon intensity ofproduction? We aim to fill this gap i