评估和量化运输部门上市公司信用风险的工具：指导说明

Guidance Note Tool to Assess and QuantifyCredit Risk from Public Corporations © 2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433, USATelephone: +1-202-473-1000; Internet:https://www.worldbank.org/transport Standard Disclaimer This work is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarilyreflect the views of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.TheWorld Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial 3.0 IGO license(CCBY-NC 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo/deed.en. Under theCreative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this Attribution Please cite the work as follows: World Bank,2025. Tool to Assess and Quantify Credit Risk fromPublic Corporations in the Transport Sector, Washington DC: WorldBank, License:Creative Translations If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by the World Bank and should not be considered an official Adaptations If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with theattribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by the World Bank. Views and opinionsexpressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation Copyright Statement The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all ofthis work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Table of Contents Acknowledgements.........................................................................................................................................viIntroduction......................................................................................................................................................1Creditworthiness of Transport SOEs...........................................................................................................2What is creditworthiness?..................................................................................................................................2Features of transport SOEs................................................................................................................................2 Figures Figure 1.Average fiscal injections as percentage of total assets, by sector............................................3Figure 2.Example of rating factors.....................................................................................................................7 Tables Table 1.Mapping of worksheets.........................................................................................................................8 Acknowledgements This note and the tool presented in the note were prepared by the Transport Global Practice of theInfrastructure Vice-Presidency at the World Bank. The tool builds on the credit rating tool developed The team for this activity was led by Matias Herrera Dappe and Daniel Benitez, under theguidance of Binyam Reja (Global Practice Manager for Transport) and Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge(GlobalDirector for Transport). The team comprised Aldo Musacchio, Claudia Bruschi, Esin Celasun, The team would like to extend special thanks to the following experts for their comments:DanielPulido, Jean-Francois Marteau, John Graham, Stephane Straub, and Victor Aragones. This report would not have been possible without generous funding by the Global Facility to Introduction State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in the provision of transport infrastructureand services. Available evidence indicates SOEs represent 28 percent of total public spending intransport and 11 percent of public and private investment, with the percentage increasing to just Many transport SOEs perform poorly, which undermines their ability to undertake needed capitaland operating expenditures. Evidence from 19 covered by the World Bank Infrastructure SOEsDatabase in 2009–18 show that airline and airport, railway, and road SOEs performed poorly,with average rates of return on average assets being -3.7 percent, -3.5 percent, and 1.4 percent,respectively. These returns drop to -12.1 percent, -16.1 percent, and -12.0 percent, respectively, onceoperations subsidies from the government are stripped out of the accounts, indicating that these Weak financial performance can limit SOEs access to financing markets and create fiscal risks.Forexample, about 40 percent of the transport SOEs analyzed by Herrera Dappe and others (2023),have Z”-scores (an indicator of insolvency used by credit rating agencies) equivalent to CCC+ orlower credit