泰国气候变化对福利的分布影响

11253 The Distributional Impacts of Climatic Variabilityon Welfare in Thailand Sailesh TiwariEmmanuel SkoufiasVarun Kshirsagar Poverty and Equity Global DepartmentNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11253 Abstract decrease welfare and increase inequality at the national leveland in both urban and rural areas. There is considerablevariation in the extent to which access to social assistanceand credit programs in their current configuration mitigatesthe negative impacts of rainfall shortages on welfare andprevents increases in inequality. Investing in irrigation infra-structure and strengthening the insurance components ofsocial protection and credit support programs, such as theVillage Funds program, through increasing the identifica-tion, targeting, and coverage of those vulnerable to povertyfrom exposure to such shocks, provide promising optionsfor mitigating the impacts of climatic variability on welfare,poverty, and overall inequality in Thailand. This paper uses cross-sectional surveys of households over2007–21 from Thailand’s Socio-Economic ExpenditureSurvey to conduct one of the first investigations of theimpacts of climatic variability on two key statistics charac-terizing the distribution of welfare in Thailand: the meanand the variance (or inequality). It shows that historicallyhigher rainfall is positively associated with the mean levelof welfare, as measured by household consumption expen-ditures per capita, and negatively associated with povertyand a variety of measures of inequality in the country. Theseresults validate concerns about the impacts of increasedclimatic variability and more frequent and intense weatherextremes associated with the process of climate change.More frequent and more intense shortages of rainfall will The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The Distributional Impacts of ClimaticVariability on Welfare in Thailand1 Sailesh Tiwari,2Emmanuel Skoufias,3and Varun Kshirsagar4 Key words: climate change, poverty, vulnerability, shocks, inequalityJEL classification: Q54, I31, D63 1. Introduction There is a general consensus that the process of climate change is associated with increasedclimatic variability and more variable weather (IPCC, 2012; Thornton et. al., 2014).5 Withmillions of poor households in rural areas all over the world dependent on agriculture, there isincreasing recognition and concern that the change in the patterns of weather (or climaticvariability) is likely to increase the vulnerability of households to poverty and pose a seriouschallenge to development progress and efforts all over the world. In this paper we study Thailand to understand better how climatic variability, defined asdeviations from the mean climate state over a medium time scale, such as a few months duringthe growing season, impacts the average level of welfare and the inequality of its distribution.Agriculture makes up about 10 percent of Thailand's GDP, with rice serving as a staple food,key employer, and top export earner for the country. As of 2017, 5.8 million households wereengaged in the agriculture sector and 30.7 percent of the total labor force (Attavanich, 2018). Assuch, unusual weather in the growing season can affect agricultural yields, incomes and welfarenot only in rural areas, but also in urban areas through the price, employment, and wagechannels. More detailed knowledge about the welfare impacts associated with the factorsdetermining plant health and growth and the delayed or early arrival of the monsoon seasoninforms the design of policies mitigating the welfare impacts of climatic variability and cancontribute toward the improved design of early warning mechanisms. The extent to which household welfare and its distribution changes as a consequence ofclimatic and weather variability depends on the intensity and frequency of shocks experiencedby households and the risk management strategies households have at their disposal. Forexample, households may undertake ex-ante income-smoothing strategies and adopt lowreturn-low risk crop and asset portfolios (Rosenzweig and Binswanger, 1993). In addition tocrop diversification, households may also use their savings (Paxson, 1992), take loans from thefo