资产配置纪要：金属、权益、外汇

Asset Allocation Note: Metals, Equity and Forex资产配置纪要：金属、权益、外汇 CITIC FuturesInternational Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract Metals:Recent price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and profit-takingactivities. In the medium to long term, some non-ferrous metals still face supply constraints, andinvestors are also turning to precious metals to hedge risks such as unregulated fiscal expansion.Therefore, theupward trend logic remains intact. Equity Indices:The recent consecutive rise of the Shanghai Composite Index may be attributedto the concentrated subscriptions of A500 ETFs. However, substantial bullish momentum has not yetconverged, and there is a risk of a subsequent pullback. It is recommended to adopt a defensivestrategy ofdividend-oriented equities plus long positions on CSI 500 Index futures (IC), andpatientlywait for the "Spring Rally". Forex:A weaker US dollar, a rising A-share market and concentrated forex settlementat theyear-endhave driven the USD/CNY exchange rate to break below the 7.0 threshold. Nevertheless,the central bank may curb the risk of excessive RMB appreciation in the short term. The USD/CNYexchange rate is expected to trade within the range of 6.8–7.0 in 2026, withopportunities from RMBappreciation worthy of attention. Risks:upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand andincremental policy support,while downside risks stem from the possibility of concentrated capital outflows. 金属方面，近期价格波动主因市场情绪与资金止盈。中长期来看，部分有色金属仍面临供给约束，投资者也选择利用贵金属来对冲财政无序扩张等，因此向上逻辑并没有发生改变。 股指方面，近期沪指连续上涨或因A500ETF集中申购，实质多头力量并未汇聚，且存在后续退潮风险，建议采取红利+IC多单防守，耐心等待春季躁动行情。 汇率方面，美元走弱、A股上扬、集中结汇等推动美元兑人民币破“7”，但央行短期或防范人民币过快升值风险。预计2026年美元兑人民币运行区间为6.8-7.0，关注人民币升值机会。 风险因素：需求超预期（上行）；增量政策超预期（上行）；资金集中离场（下行） RelatedReports相关报告: 20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook中国期货2026年度展望 20251218 China Fiscal Policy Outlook：Moderate Expandsion？2026年中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张20251217 China Monetary Policy Outlook：Moderate Easing？2026中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松20251210 Policy Readings on the Politburo Meeting in December 2025年12月政治局会议联合点评20251225 Silver Price Rise Accelerate With Mid-term Potential白银上涨加速，中期空间仍可期待20251228 Expectations of Slower Supply Growth Boost Copper Prices供应增速放缓预期推升铜价 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports Content目录 Summary...................................................................41.Precious Metals...........................................................52.Metals....................................................................63.Equity Indices.............................................................74.Forex.....................................................................85. Assets Allocation..........................................................9Appendix: Chinese Version..................................................10一、贵金属：金银冲高后回落，短期调整无损中期趋势............................11二、有色：节前资金获利了结市场回落，中长期仍可关注多头机会..................11三、股指：“春躁”尚未开启，等待元旦后良机..................................12四、汇率：人民币汇率仍有升值空间，短期关注美元走势和国内股市................12五、资产配置：短期资金主导，长期维持有色、贵金属、股指多头配置..............13CITIC Futures International Research Reports.................................14 Summary Precious Metals:Short-term correction does not alter medium-term bullishness.Gold andsilverretraced on Dec 29 following COMEX margin hikes and overheating risks.Near-term pressurepersistsdue to year-end profit-taking and the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight reduction (Jan 8–14). However,loose liquidity and USD credit contraction remain long-term drivers. Silver is expectedto exhibit higher elasticity given structural spot shortages and expectations of a mild global recovery.Platinum’s fundamentals are superior;recommend long positions post-correction or LongPlatinum/ShortPalladiumspreads. Base Metals:Profit-taking triggers pullback; focus on long opportunities post-stabilization.Recent declines are primarily driven by pre-holiday liquidations.Copper, aluminum, and tinmaintain supply constraints with improving domestic demand expectations; look for "buy-on-dip"opportunities once prices stabilize.Lithium carbonateandpolysiliconremain supported by tightsupply-demand dynamics. Equity Indices:"Spring Rally" delayed;wait for post-New Year opportunities. Recent gains inthe SHCOMP, driven by year-end A500 ETF inflows, lack sustainability as net inflows are offset byIH/IF short hedging. Post-holiday "return tides" pose a risk. Strategy: Defensive posture using high-dividend stocks + Long IC. For arbitrage, monitor IC/IM cash-and-carry and bull calendar spreads. FX:Room for RMB appreciation remains; monitor USD and A-shares. RMB strength issupported by a weakening USD, attractive domestic asset returns, and seasonal year-end forexconversion. We forecast the 2026 USD/CNY trading range at 6.8–7.2. Short-term momentumdepends on external USD trends and the performance of domestic equities. Asset Allocation:Liquidity-driven volatility vs. long-term structural longs. Current volat