cop28 2025年可再生能源承诺增加两倍：更新（英）2025

COP28 TriplingRenewable CapacityPledge 2025: Update Tracking countries’ ambitions INTERNATIONAL ENERGY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy, IEAMember IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgypt This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of The EuropeanCommission also Abstract Nearly 200 countries made major collective pledges on energy at the COP28climate summit in Dubai with the aim of keeping the Paris Agreement target oflimiting global warming to 1.5 °C within reach. For the first time, governments setkey goals to help meet this objective, including tripling global renewable electricitycapacity by the end of this decade. In June 2024, the IEA publishedCOP28 Thisreport is an update to the 2024 analysis with extended geographicalcoverage. It reviews all new NDCs submitted until the end of COP30 andquantifies renewable ambitions for 2030. It also examines updated nationalpolicies and plans for almost 200 countries from June 2024 to December 2025 toidentify how national renewable capacity ambitions have changed since the last Acknowledgements This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate ofEnergy Markets and Security. The project was designed and supervised by HeymiBahar, Senior Analyst. Yasmina Abdelilah, designed and coordinated the analysisand led the production of the report. The analytical framework of this report was The report benefited from analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues.The lead authors of the report were, Yasmina Abdelilah, Vasilios Anatolitis-Pelka,Heymi Bahar, Marcus Bockhold, Piotr Bojek, Elif Cerezci, Laura Marí Martínez,RafaelMartínez Gordon and Hunor Papolczi,who also coordinated the Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division, provided senior oversightto the framing and communication of this work. The report also benefitted fromvaluable comments from IEA colleagues Sylvia Beyer, Sofie Christensen, JustineGarrett, Luca Lo Re and Ignacio Martinez Echenique, and Thomas Spencer. Theauthors would also like to thank Adam Majoe for skilfully editing themanuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular PoeliBojorquez, Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Liv Gaunt, and Jethro Mullen, for their This report was produced with the financial assistance of the European Union aspart of its funding of the Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies Questions or comments? Please write to us at IEA-REMR@iea.org Key findings This analysis updates renewable capacity ambitions in NDCs and nationalpolicies for almost 200 countries from the IEA’sCOP28 Tripling RenewableCapacity Pledgereportpublished in June 2024. It tracks renewable ambitionsfor 2030 in all new NDCs submitted through the end of COP30 and benchmarksthese against updated national policies and plans. The report also assesses how New Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) show limited reflection ofthe pledge to triple global renewable capacity to at least 11 000 GW by 2030agreed at COP28.However since then, only about two-thirds of NDCs have beenupdated (128) and fewer than half of these (53) explicitly reference the global NDCs continue to under-represent current government plans for installedrenewable capacity by 2030.In contrast, analysis of existing policies, plans andestimatesfor 189 countries correspond to reaching around 8 350GW ofrenewable capacity in 2030 — five times the level reflected in NDCs. Emerging Countries’ overall renewable capacity ambitions from national policies andplans are 6% higher compared to last year’s analysis.This change is basedon new policy documents released from 101 countries. Among them, 51 countries 21 countries lowered their ambitions expecting to install 408 GW less renewablecapacity. The remaining 29 countries released new policy documents but kept Despite higher ambitions emerging from national policies, a significantambition gap with the tripling pledge remains. The IEA’s latest forecast for2030 sees global renewables deployment exceeding national ambitions driven byrapid expansion of solar PV and wind by government plans and policies due to Chapter 1. Global ambition Nationally determined contributions Renewables feature in nearly all new NDCs, but less than halfmention the global tripling pledge and even fewer outline their In November 2023 at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), 195 partiesagreed to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030 as part of the first GlobalStocktake (GST1), also known as the “UAE Consensus”. Parties were expectedto consider the outcomes agreed at the first GST and raise their climate ambitionsin the subsequent round of updated nationally determined contri