农产品日报20251229

2026 Outlook-A Year of2026 Outlook-A Year of Shelley Wang, CFAShelley Wang, CFA Recession and ReinventionRecession and Reinvention Rrsrarchas oelgs simje factm rnck ng their istrnemResearch Inreslars should cons rtrs Mcrgan StsnleyFor analyst certification and other important disclosures,rfscisianRrsrarchas oelgs simje factm rnck ng their istrnemResearch Inreslars should cons rtrs Mcrgan StsnleyFor analyst certification and other important disclosures,rfscisian report.refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this+= Anshysts cmpl:ycc by nmru.S. aflistes ar: nr rcgistem:eith PliFA, ny mrbrasrittsd psns.al ncncirt:s3ns2 (siut: usse : /e ay surus 5p puSGuas:dde pndl uetlu (ofqrrs e m a,t:ntaix:report.refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this+= Anshysts cmpl:ycc by nmru.S. aflistes ar: nr rcgistem:eith PliFA, ny mrbrasrittsd psns.al ncncirt:s3ns2 (siut: usse : /e ay surus 5p puSGuas:dde pndl uetlu (ofqrrs e m a,t:ntaix: KeyForecastsataGlanceKeyForecastsataGlance Exhibit 1:Our 2026 Chin3 avtc inc,stry forecast29.4mnwholesaleExhibit 1:Our 2026 Chin3 avtc inc,stry forecast29.4mnwholesale e22.5mndomestice22.5mndomestic Orderof PreferenceOrderof Preference Exhibit 2: China EV Order of PreferenceExhibit 2: China EV Order of Preference SOE CEMs Order of PrefersnceSOE CEMs Order of Prefersnce Rrihgs UeyRrihgs Uey PaTe:PaTe: Car2.asct:Car2.asct: Exhibit 4:Exhibit 4: 5E E5E E MajorBuildingBlocksto2026OutlookMajorBuildingBlocksto2026Outlook Policy Bad news could be good newsPolicy Bad news could be good news Subsidy per car (Rmb)Subsidy per car (Rmb) National cash-for-clunker subsidiesNational cash-for-clunker subsidies les .sd uncut Aorsqns ul sefiutuoVolume mix of >Rmb150k passenger vehiclesles .sd uncut Aorsqns ul sefiutuoVolume mix of >Rmb150k passenger vehicles 100%80%100%80% BeterBeter subsicdies as of late November (see Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12 ); hence, PV retail sales fell8% YoY in November vs. mid-teens YoY growth in 1H25 (see Exhibit 13 )subsicdies as of late November (see Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12 ); hence, PV retail sales fell8% YoY in November vs. mid-teens YoY growth in 1H25 (see Exhibit 13 ) 31,131.729.490.531,131.729.490.5 MORGAN STANLEY RFSFARCHMORGAN STANLEY RFSFARCH