衡量全球贸易政策活动

Measuring Global Trade Samuele Centorrino (IMF), Antonia Diakantoni (WTO),Alexander Keck (WTO), Michele Ruta (IMF), MonikaSztajerowska (IMF), Yuting Wei (Bocconi University) WP/25/220 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025OCT IMF Working Paper SPR and ITD Measuring Global Trade Policy ActivityPrepared by Samuele Centorrino (IMF), Antonia Diakantoni (WTO), Alexander Keck (WTO), Michele Ruta(IMF), Monika Sztajerowska (IMF), Yuting Wei (Bocconi University) Authorized for distribution by Martin Sommer IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolvingglobal trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using a Dynamic Factor Model oncomprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories, we document a structural shift around2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies. The TPA Index also identifies cyclical episodesof heightened activity and reveals interconnections between different types of measures. We are also able to WORKING PAPERS Measuring Global Trade Policy Prepared by Samuele Centorrino (IMF), Antonia Diakantoni (WTO),Alexander Keck (WTO), Michele Ruta (IMF), Monika Sztajerowska (IMF),Yuting Wei (Bocconi University) Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 1Data ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3Methodology........................................................................................................................................................ 6Results ................................................................................................................................................................. 8Robustness and Extensions ............................................................................................................................ 12Nowcasting Trade Policy Activity.................................................................................................................... 13Conclusion......................................................................................................................................................... 17References......................................................................................................................................................... 19Annex I. Further Data Description ................................................................................................................... 22Annex II. Further Tables and Figures.............................................................................................................. 26Annex III. Predictors in Nowcasting...............................................................................................................32Annex IV. Further Tables and Figures on Nowcasting..................................................................................33 FIGURES 2.The Role of Facilitating and Other Measures............................................................................................. 103.Trade-Policy Activity (TPA) Index: G20 versus non-G20 .........................................................................114. Alternative Composition of Measures: The Role of Trade-Restrictive Measures?................................. 13 MEASURING GLOBAL TRADE POLICY ACTIVITY Samuele Centorrino (IMF)Antonia Diakantoni (WTO)Alexander Keck (WTO)Michele Ruta (IMF)Monika Sztajerowska (IMF)Yuting Wei (Bocconi University) October 2025 Abstract:This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity(TPA)Index,a novel indicatormeasuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using aDynamicFactor Model on comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries andterritories, we document a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the useof trade policies. The TPA Index also identifies cyclical episodes of heightened activity andreveals interconnections between different types of measures. We are also able to identify 1INTRODUCTION Globaltrade policy is changing rapidly,with economies adopting various tariff and non-tariffmeasures that can significantly affect global trade and economic growth (IMF, 2025; WTO, 2025).Inthis environment, accurate and timely data on global trade policy dynamics is increasinglyimportantfor both policy and economic analysis.While there are several initiatives aimed atm