评估CBDC对金融稳定的影响

Evaluating the Implications ofCBDC for Financial Stability Marco Gross, Marcello Miccoli, Jeanne Verrier, and GermánVillegas-Bauer NOTE/2025/008 FINTECH NOTE Evaluating the Implications ofCBDC for Financial Stability Marco Gross, Marcello Miccoli, Jeanne Verrier, and Germán Villegas-Bauer November 2025 ©2025 International Monetary Fund Evaluating the Implications of CBDC for Financial Stability Note 2025/008Prepared by Marco Gross, Marcello Miccoli, Jeanne Verrier, and Germán Villegas-Bauer* Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Gross, Marco, author. | Miccoli, Marcello, author. | Verrier, Jeanne, author. | Villegas Bauer,German, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: Evaluating the implications of CBDC for financial stability / Marco Gross, Marcello Miccoli, JeanneVerrier, and Germán Villegas-Bauer.Other titles: Evaluating the implications of central bank digital currencies for financial stability. | Fintech notes. Description: Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2025. | Nov. 2025. | NOTE2025/008 |Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: ISBN: 9798229030878(paper)9798229030915(ePub)9798229030885(WebPDF)Subjects: LCSH: Digital currency. | Financial services industry—Technological innovations. Classification: LCC HG1710.G7 2025 DISCLAIMER:Fintech Notes offer practical advice from IMF staff members to policymakers onimportant issues. The views expressed in Fintech Notes are those of the author(s) and do notnecessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Gross, Marco, Marcello Miccoli, Jeanne Verrier, and GermanVillegas-Bauer. 2025. “Evaluating the Implications of CBDC for Financial Stability” IMF Fintech Note Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A. *Jeanne Verrier was the lead author. This Note was written under the supervision of Tobias Adrian, TommasoMancini-Griffoli, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, with financial support from the Government of Japan. Theauthors would like to thank Arif Ismail, Edona Reshidi, André Reslow, and other IMF staff who provided Contents Acronyms..................................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction and Summary of Findings.................................................................................................... 6 I.Conceptual Framework........................................................................................................................ 8 Introducing Central Bank Digital Currency ............................................................................................. 8Transmission Channels .......................................................................................................................... 8Overarching Considerations ................................................................................................................. 14 II.Insights from Quantitative Studies.................................................................................................. 16 Recommended Data Collection on the Financial System for an Initial Analysis .................................. 21Analytical Frameworks and Their Application ...................................................................................... 23Model Selection Considerations ........................................................................................................... 25 IV.Design and Policy Options to Mitigate Downside Risks ............................................................ 26 Design Options ..................................................................................................................................... 26Calibration Challenges ......................................................................................................................... 27Policy Considerations ........................................................................................................................... 31 Conclusion................................................................................................................................................. 32 Annex 2. Concrete Applications of Central Bank Digital Currency Models........................................ 36 References ................................................................................................................................................. 41 BOX 1. Mitigating Financial Risks: A Stock-Take of Central Banks’ Approaches to CBDC Design ...................29 FIGURES 1. CBDC Transmission Framework .............................................................................................................. 92. Design Features Aimed at Safeguarding Financial Stability.....................