莫桑比克共和国：使用核心QPM对MPC过程进行技术援助报告演练

Walk through of MPC process using core-QPM November 2025 Prepared By Ørjan Robstad and Erlend Njølstad (short-term experts Norges bank) Authoring Departments:Monetary and Capital Markets Nexus Reference: 18669492Mission ID:25MMN96Funding Program ID: MCM_MOZ_2021_01 The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of Mozambique (the "TA recipient") in response to their request fortechnical assistance. Unless the TA recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, this document (inwhole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF Executive Director forMozambique, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies orinstrumentalities of the TA recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other technical The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of the IMF’s Monetary and Contents Glossary .................................................................................................................................................4Preface ...................................................................................................................................................5Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................6 Figures Figure 1. The interest rate gap and real exchange rate gap in core-QPM ...........................................11 TablesTable 1. Recommendations ....................................................................................................................8 Annexes Annex I. Main output from core-QPM model.........................................................................................14Annex II. Scenario output report from core-QPM model (selected figures) ..........................................23Annex III. Filter report from core-QPM model (selected figures) ..........................................................26Annex IV. User manual (“Cook book”) (from mission in February 2024)..............................................32 Glossary AdminAdministrative prices basket of goods in CPIBMBank of MozambiqueBVARBayesian vector auto-regressive modelCore-QPMA core and simplified version of QPMCPIConsumer price indexCPI CoreCPI excluding fruits, vegetables and administered pricesDEEDepartment of Economic ResearchDMRMarkets and reserves Management DepartmentFGForward guidanceFPASForecasting and policy analysis systemGDPGrossdomesticproductITInflation targetingMCMMonetary and Capital Markets DepartmentMPCMonetary policy committee of BMMTMission teamNowMozNowcasting system in DEEQoQQuarterly growth rate (%)QPMQuarterly Projection ModelTATechnical assistanceUIPUncovered interest parityUSDUS dollarYoYYear-on-year growth rate (%) Preface At the request of Bank of Mozambique (BM), a Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Departmentmission provided technical assistance from March 31 – April 11, 2025, to assist BM staff in building The mission team (MT) comprised of Ørjan Robstad and Erlend Njølstad, both from Norges Bank.The mission was undertaken as part of the Norwegian-funded, multi-year, central bank modernizationprogram covering the main areas of central banking activities. The purpose of the mission was tomake adjustments to the model and model output, to make it ready for practical use in the policy Together with a small group of the Economic Research Department (DEE) staff, MT ran a hands-onmock forecasting and policy analysis process based on the data from the march policy round. It builds Executive Summary Many of the models and tools that have been developed during earlier FPAS missions areactively used in the policy process.During the first on-site mission after the COVID-19 pandemic,however, it became clear that there was a need to enhance competence on the use of old-QPM forforecasting and policy analysis, including MATLAB scripts that handle the data feed, conditionalforecasting, scenario analysis and reporting. Hence, in the follow-up mission in February 2023 andthe virtual training session stretching from April to November 2023, DEE staff were introduced tosome fundamental building blocks to enhance staff autonomy in the use of core macro models in the The purpose of this mission was to add features and output to core-QPM so that BM iscomfortable in using core-QPM as the main policy model.To this end, together with a small groupof DEE staff, MT did a mock forecasting and policy analysis process. The exercises were based on BM should move to a simpler and more transparent version of the QPM model based on thecore-QPM model developed by MT in collaboration with DEE. The current version of QPM isunnecessarily complex, which makes it hard for DEE staff to reap the full benefits of having a macromodel in the monetary policy process. Lack