圣马力诺共和国：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperonthe Republic of San Marinowas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultationwith the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onOctober 31, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF SAN MARINO SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared ByCarlos de Resende and Jenny Lee (EUR) ASSESSING ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN SAN MARINO _________________________2 A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________2B. Stylized Facts___________________________________________________________________________3C. Export Diversification in San Marino ___________________________________________________8D. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications _________________________________________15 FIGURES 1. Per Capita GDP Compared with Other European Small Economies and Microstates ___42. GDP per Worker Compared with Other European Small Economies and Microstates __43. Sectoral Distribution of Output Compared with Other European Microstates __________54. Sectoral GVA Growth___________________________________________________________________65. Pearson Correlation between Sectoral Output, Employment, and Exports______________66. Sectoral Distribution of Output, Employment, and Exports_____________________________77. Sectoral Labor Productivity_____________________________________________________________88. Small and Microstates: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) vs Country Size and Per CapitalGDP ______________________________________________________________________________________99. Selected, Small and Microstates: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, 2000-2022 ____________1010. Panel Regression: HHI vs Country Size and Per Capita GDP, 2000-2022 _____________1211. Selected, Small Economies, and Microstates: Entropy Index (EI), 2000-2022 _________1412. Selected, Small Economies, and Microstates: 4-Goods Concentration Ratio (CR-4),2000-2022 _______________________________________________________________________________15 TABLE 1. Panel Regression: HHI vs Country Size and Per Capita GDP, 2000-2022 ______________11 ANNEXES I. Export Diversification Indices __________________________________________________________18II. Additional Results _____________________________________________________________________19 References_______________________________________________________________________________21 ASSESSING ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN SANMARINO1 This paper evaluates the state of economic and export diversification in San Marino, a high-income small state with a manufacturing-heavy economy. Using sectoral Gross Value Added(GVA) data and export diversification metrics—Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Entropy Index(EI), and Export Concentration Ratio (CR)—derived from mirror trade data, the study benchmarksSan Marino against peer economies. While San Marino’s economy seems concentrated inmanufacturing and wholesale trade at the aggregate sector level, more disaggregated productlevel data shows that its export structure is well diversified given the country’s size anddevelopment level, despite more recent trends suggest a slight decreasing in diversification. Theanalysis confirms a U-shaped relationship between diversification and income, indicating thathigh-income economies like San Marino may not further benefit from more diversification. Theseresults suggest that horizontal structural policies—rather than sector-specific industrial policy—tosupporting high-value-added products within currently competitive sectors, as well as to high-productivity growth sectors with economy-wide synergies, like ICT, are the most relevant tosustain productivity growth while maintaining resilience through diversification. A.Introduction This paper assesses economic and export diversification in San Marino. •Economic diversification—broadening the range of economic activities within a country—iscritical for sustainable economic growth and higher living standards (IMF 2014). It reducesvulnerability to sector-specific shocks by reducing over-reliance on a limited number ofcommodities or sectors (UNCTAD, 2017) and enhancing income stability (World Bank, 2008).Diversification also fosters innovation and competitiveness—by encouraging the developmentof new sectors and industries (Rodrik, 2006; McMillan and Rodrik, 2011)—and is closely linked tostructural transformation and productivity gains from resource reallocation (Herreford, Rogersonand Valentinyi, 2014). •Export diversification—narrowly referred to as the diversification in export products2—oftendrives output diversification and reduces vulnerability to te