圣马力诺共和国：若干问题

REPUBLIC OF SAN MARINO SELECTED ISSUES November 2025 This paperonthe Republic of San Marinowas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund REPUBLIC OF SAN MARINO SELECTED ISSUES October 31, 2025 ApprovedByEuropean Department Prepared ByCarlos de Resende and Jenny Lee (EUR) CONTENTS A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________2B. Stylized Facts___________________________________________________________________________3C. Export Diversification in San Marino ___________________________________________________8 FIGURES1. Per Capita GDP Compared with Other European Small Economies and Microstates ___4 2. GDP per Worker Compared with Other European Small Economies and Microstates __43. Sectoral Distribution of Output Compared with Other European Microstates __________54. Sectoral GVA Growth___________________________________________________________________65. Pearson Correlation between Sectoral Output, Employment, and Exports______________66. Sectoral Distribution of Output, Employment, and Exports_____________________________77. Sectoral Labor Productivity_____________________________________________________________8 8. Small and Microstates: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) vs Country Size and Per CapitalGDP ______________________________________________________________________________________9 9. Selected, Small and Microstates: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, 2000-2022 ____________1010. Panel Regression: HHI vs Country Size and Per Capita GDP, 2000-2022 _____________12 TABLE 1. Panel Regression: HHI vs Country Size and Per Capita GDP, 2000-2022 ______________11 ANNEXESI. Export Diversification Indices __________________________________________________________18 II. Additional Results _____________________________________________________________________19 References_______________________________________________________________________________21 ASSESSING ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN SAN This paper evaluates the state of economic and export diversification in San Marino, a high-income small state with a manufacturing-heavy economy. Using sectoral Gross Value Added(GVA) data and export diversification metrics—Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Entropy Index(EI), and Export Concentration Ratio (CR)—derived from mirror trade data, the study benchmarksSan Marino against peer economies. While San Marino’s economy seems concentrated inmanufacturing and wholesale trade at the aggregate sector level, more disaggregated productlevel data shows that its export structure is well diversified given the country’s size and A.Introduction 1.This paper assesses economic and export diversification in San Marino. •Economic diversification—broadening the range of economic activities within a country—iscritical for sustainable economic growth and higher living standards (IMF 2014). It reducesvulnerability to sector-specific shocks by reducing over-reliance on a limited number ofcommodities or sectors (UNCTAD, 2017) and enhancing income stability (World Bank, 2008). •Export diversification—narrowly referred to as the diversification in export products2—oftendrives output diversification and reduces vulnerability to terms-of-trade shocks, stabilizingexport revenues (Ghosh and Ostry, 1994; Bleaney and Greenaway, 2001; Cavalloet al., 2008;Haddadet al., 2013; McMillan, Rodrik and Verduzco-Gallo, 2014; World Bank, 2017). It isassociated with higher growth, increased per capita income (Al-Marhubi, 2000; Gutierrez de 2.Small economies and microstates like San Marino, face constraints to diversificationdue to limited resources and small domestic markets.These factors restrict efficient productionof a broad range of products (IMF 2014). While limited regarding small states, existing studiesconfirm the general findings for other economies. Both McIntyre et al (2018) and Lee and Zhang 3.The literature offers nuanced stylized facts relevant for San Marino, a microstate withhigh-income status that continues to primarily rely on manufacturing.While economic andexport diversification are critical components of sustainable growth, especially at lower levels ofdevelopment, the relationship between growth and specialization, in the form of sectoralconcentration, is U-shaped. At higher developmental stages, further growth is often associated withspecialization rather than diversification (Rodrik, 2006; Klinger and Lederman, 2004; and Imbs andWacziarg, 2003). Markakkaran and Sridharan (2022) confirm that low- and lower-middle-income 4.San Marino is a highly open economy, dependent on trade, especially with Italy andother European economies.Haddad e