荷兰王国-阿鲁巴：若干问题

KINGDOM OF THE SELECTED ISSUES December2025 This paperonthe Kingdom of the Netherlands—Arubawas prepared by a staff team ofthe International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 International Monetary Fund KINGDOM OF THENETHERLANDS—ARUBA SELECTED ISSUES November5, 2025 Approved ByWestern Hemisphere Prepared ByOlga Bespalova, Justin Matz, Toyosi Ojo, andMarco Arena (WHD), Emanuele Massetti (FAD). CONTENTS ARUBA’S DEMOGRAPHICS AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE LABOR MARKETAND OUTPUT_________________________________________________________________________3 A. Stylized Facts on Demographics Trends in Aruba ____________________________________3B. Stylized Facts on Labor Markets in Aruba ____________________________________________8C. Impact of Demographic Dynamics on the Labor Market and Output ______________12 FIGURE1. Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes ______________________________________ 14 ANNEX 1. Data Sources and Metholological Sources _________________________________________ 18 References____________________________________________________________________________19 SEA-LEVEL RISE AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION IN ARUBA________________________20 A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________20B. Climate Trends and Projections ____________________________________________________21C. Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Adaptation ____________________________________________26 BOXES 1. Sea-Level Rise: Drivers and Projections_____________________________________________25 KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS-ARUBA 2. Estimating the Cost of Sea-Level Rise and Adaptation _____________________________________30 FIGURES 1. Climate Characteristics _____________________________________________________________________222. Historical Temperature and Precipitations__________________________________________________233. Historical Time Series of Selected Indicators of Extreme Weather __________________________234. Historical and Simulated Annual Average Temperature and Total Annual Precipitations ___24 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 33 ANNEXI.MapsofSimulated Changes _________________________________________________________________35 ARUBA’S DEMOGRAPHICS AND ITS POTENTIALIMPACT ON THE LABOR MARKET AND OUTPUT Historically, Aruba benefited from population growth that expanded the labor force, thereby boostingproductivity and fostering economic growth—a phenomenon known as the “demographic dividend”.However, declining fertility rates and a rapidly aging population are altering the balance between theeconomically active working population and those dependent on them. This study analyzes recent A.Stylized Facts on Demographics Trends In Aruba 1.Although Aruba has experienced fluctuations in birth rates in the past, a slow andsteady decline in fertility rates has been evident, particularly, since 2017. In fact, the birth rate,measured as the number of births per 1,000 people, reached a historic low of 759 in 2024.2.Additionally, Aruba’s the population is aging swiftly, with the cohort aged 65 and older increasing 2.Aruba’s population growth hassignificantly slowed in recent years.Decliningfertility rates coupled with lower inward migrationhave notably reduced population growth. Whilethe island's population has nearly doubled since1960, most of that growth occurred before 2010. foreign workers during the late 1980s and 1990s, and population increased by nearly 40 percentfrom 1990 to 2000. This growth rate slowed to 13 percent in the early 2000s and further declined to KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS-ARUBA rates have declined to historic lows and inward migration has diminished. Currently, the primarydrivers of population change in Aruba are immigration and emigration flows. 3.As of end-December 2024, 39.5 percent of Aruba’s population was foreign-born.As of2024, foreign-born women represented approximately 56 percent of the migrant population.Foreign-born populations, while primarily of working age and younger than Aruba-born population,are also getting older. Among all migrants, working-age females (ages 15-64) comprise 46 percent,while working-age males account for 36 percent, with children (5 percent) and overaged 65 (14percent) making up the rest. By end-2024, 22 percent of inward migrants either returned to Aruba orcame from other Dutch Caribbean islands. The remaining migrants were foreign-born, mainly in 4.The evolution of population pyramidsillustrates the shifts in age distribution. In 1960, the population distribution resembled aclassic pyramid; however, by the 1990s, it had reflecting the baby boom and its subsequentecho. The median population age increased fromjust 23.9 years in 1960 to 42 years