柬埔寨：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；柬埔寨执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT;AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR FORCAMBODIA Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withCambodia, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsNovember 21,2025,consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withCambodia. •The Staff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onNovember 21, 2025,following discussions that ended onSeptember 2, 2025,with the officials ofCambodiaon economic developments andpolicies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed onNovember 3, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by thestaffof theIMFand the World Bank. •AStatement by the Executive DirectorforCambodia. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00per printed copy International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation withCambodia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Growth is projected to decelerate to 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026, reflecting exportvolatility, declining remittances, a slowdown in tourism, and weak domestic demand. Inflation isprojected to rise modestly in 2025 before easing in 2026. •Risks are tilted to the downside, with financial sector vulnerabilities at the center.•Prudent fiscal and monetary policies, together with structural reforms, are essential to safeguardstability and strengthen resilience. Near-term measures should cushion external shocks whilelaying the foundation for medium-term competitiveness. Washington, DC – November 25, 2025:On November 21, 2025, the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Cambodia.1Theauthorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 The Cambodia’s economy continued to accelerate in 2024, and growth reached 6.0 percent,bolstered by a strong rebound in garment and agricultural exports and a continued recovery intourism. This trend continued into the first half of 2025, with nowcasting estimates pointing to year-on-year growth of 6.2 percent. However, a confluence of shocks—trade disruptions, border tensions, andanemic credit growth—exposed the economy’s vulnerabilities, and signs of economic slowdown areemerging in the second half of 2025. Economic growth is projected to decelerate to 4.8 percent in 2025 and further to around 4.0 percentin 2026. The downward revision from the 2024 Article IV staff report reflects remittance losses and atourism slowdown, which are expected to weigh on domestic demand. Tariff effects will lower exportearnings as manufacturers face margin pressures. Risks are tilted to the downside, driven by financial sector vulnerabilities associated with the array ofshocks. Trade policy uncertainty could further disrupt export growth. Renewed border tensions couldundermine confidence, amplifying adverse effects on domestic demand, tourism, and financial sectorstability. Elevated private debt, rising NPLs, and governance vulnerabilities could further amplify risksto financial stability. On the upside, deeper regional trade and investment integration could promote export growth. Successful reintegration of returned workers into the domestic labor market couldsupport a stronger recovery in domestic demand. Executive Board Assessment3 Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. While Cambodia’s economy grewstrongly in 2024, the recovery remains uneven and is decelerating, impacted by subdued domesticdemand, border tensions, trade disruptions, and a real estate correction. Directors also cautionedthat risks are tilted to the downside and that Cambodia’s growth model remains vulnerable due toreliance on a narrow export base. They urged the authorities to safeguard macroeconomic stabilityand enhance resilience through a comprehensive and well-coordinated implementation of fiscal,monetary and structural policies. Directors agreed that fiscal policy should cushion the impact of current shocks while preserving fiscalprudence. They highlighted the importance of temporary and targeted support for vulnerablehouseholds and displaced workers, alongside active labor market policies. Over the medium term,gra