马绍尔群岛共和国：若干问题

REPUBLIC OF THEMARSHALL SELECTED ISSUES December2025 This paperontheRepublic of theMarshall Islandswas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 International Monetary Fund REPUBLIC OF THEMARSHALL ISLANDS SELECTED ISSUES October 7, 2025 Approved ByAsiaand PacificDepartment Prepared ByXin Li,Taku Zakoji(both APD), and AzarSultanov (RES). CONTENTS BUILDING RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THEMARSHALL ISLANDS __________________________________________________________________2A. Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and Climate Change _______________________________2B. Model-Based Scenario Analysis _______________________________________________________5C. Simulation Results __________________________________________________________________10 FIGURES 1. Simulation Results under One-off Natural Disaster__________________________________122. Simulation Results under Recurring Natural Disaster________________________________13 TABLES 1 Access to External Climate Finance ____________________________________________________52. Calibrated Parameters and Steady State Values _______________________________________83. Financing of Standard Public Infrastructure Investment at the Steady State___________9 BUILDING RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS AND The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) faces severe challenges due to its vulnerability to climatechange and natural disasters, resulting in economic repercussions such as erosion, flooding, droughts,and damage to essential infrastructure. Leveraging a dynamic general equilibrium model—Debt,Investment, Growth, and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD) Model, this paper shows that resilientinfrastructure investments and effective public investment management can significantly reduce GDPcontraction following rapid onset and slow-moving natural disaster shocks. Tax reform, featured by apermanent increase in the VAT rate, helps facilitate infrastructure restoration against persistent sea- A.Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and Climate Change 1.As a remote archipelago situated in the Pacific Ocean, RMI faces significant challengesdue to its vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters.Climate change, manifested assea level rise (SLR), fluctuating sea temperatures, and inconsistent rainfall, has far-reachingconsequences for Marshallese livelihoods and access to critical resources (RMI National AdaptationPlan (NAP), 2023). Such climate phenomena affect RMI’s economy through multiple channels,including erosion and flooding, droughts, damage to electricity supplies and water resources, 2.Natural hazards, particularly SLR and typhoons, pose significant economic losses that,when intertwined with population decline, threaten to erode the country’s long-term growthpotential.With an average elevation of approximately 2 meters above sea level and nearly theentire population residing within 100 meters of the shoreline, SLR presents the primary physical REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS event combined with a 0.5-meter rise in sea levels1could affect over 50 percent of urban areas inMajuro and more than 80 percent in Ebeye, resulting in annual damages equivalent to nearly30 percent of GDP.2These climate risks, if left unaddressed, could undermine residents' confidencein the nation's long-term development prospects, further exacerbating the ongoing trend of 3.The profound impact of natural disasters calls for a comprehensive and proactive planfor climate adaptation.The 2023 NAP for the Marshall Islands serves as a comprehensive "survivalplan" that aims to help the nation adapt to the impacts of climate change, particularly SLR, extremeweather, and droughts. It's a bottom-up, community-driven process that involves integrating •2024-2040: Establish institutional frameworks and prioritize immediate, low-risk adaptationactions, including low technology community initiatives, nature-based solutions, and •2040-2070: Re-evaluate existing protective measures based on updated SLR data, leading todecisions on which atolls can be sustainably protected, the necessity of planned relocations, and •2070-2100: Sea levels are expected to rise by 0.5 meters, a review of strategies will be necessary, •Beyond 2150: With a possible SLR of 2 meters, critical decisions regarding migration or •The plan also includes atoll-specific strategies, with urban centers like Majuro and Ebeyefocusing on coastal barriers and future relocations, semi-urban atolls will invest in both hard and 4.The adaptation costs to protect the country against SLR and natural disasters aresubstantial and increasing over time, given the RMI’s unique geographic characteristics.TheCCDR estimates indicative costs for physical adaptation fully agains