克罗地亚共和国：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperontheRepublic of Croatiawas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onNovember 20, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF CROATIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Mariarosaria Comunale andJean-Jacques Hallaert (EUR) CONTENTS INFLATION IN CROATIA: THE ROLE OF FISCAL POLICY _________________________4 A. Introduction _____________________________________________________________________4B. Methodology ____________________________________________________________________7C. Contribution of Fiscal Shocks to Inflation ________________________________________8D. Concluding Remarks____________________________________________________________12 FIGURES 1. Inflation Dynamics in Croatia ____________________________________________________42. Components of Fiscal Balance ___________________________________________________63. Evolution of Credit to the Private Sector _________________________________________64. Baseline Results for Headline HICP_______________________________________________95. Results for Headline HICP with Fiscal Components _____________________________106. Counterfactuals: Without Increase in Public Wages _____________________________117. Headline and Core HICP Historical Decomposition 2024–25Q2 _________________12 APPENDICES I. Econometric Methodology ______________________________________________________14II. Additional Information and Robustness Checks_________________________________17 References________________________________________________________________________13 IMPROVING INVESTMENT IN HUMAN CAPITAL: EFFICIENCY OF CROATIA'SPUBLIC SPENDING ON EDUCATION AND HEALTHCARE _______________________24 A. Introduction ____________________________________________________________________24B. Education _______________________________________________________________________26 C. Healthcare ____________________________________________________________________________________47D. Conclusions___________________________________________________________________________________73 FIGURES 1. Human Capital Index__________________________________________________________________________252. Evolution of Public Expenditure on Education_________________________________________________263. Reading Achievement of Fourth Graders______________________________________________________274. Achievement in Mathematics and Science of Fourth Graders _________________________________285. Achievement of Fifteen-Year-Old Students ___________________________________________________296. Share of Low and High Performers Among the Fifteen-Year-Old Students____________________307. Efficiency of Education Spending______________________________________________________________318. Compulsory Instruction Time in Primary and Lower Secondary Education ____________________339. Enrollment Rate of 15–19-Year-Olds __________________________________________________________3310. Enrolment Rates in Early Childhood Education and Care Services____________________________3411. Government Employment in Selected Sectors _______________________________________________3712. Student-to-Teacher Ratio ____________________________________________________________________3713. Teachers Working Part-Time_________________________________________________________________3814. Class-Size and Educational Outcome ________________________________________________________3915. Creative Thinking Performance of 15-Year-Old Students ____________________________________4116. Collaborative Problem-Solving Performance of 15-Year-Old Students_______________________4117. Expenditure on Educational Institution Per Full-Time Equivalent Student—Upper Secondary Education _________________________________________________________________4218. Employment Rate ____________________________________________________________________________4319. Over-Qualification Rate ______________________________________________________________________4320. Skills Mismatch ______________________________________________________________________________4421. Difference in Participation Rates in Early Childhood Education Between Highest andLowest Income Tertiles ______________________________________________________________________4522. Childcare Cost by Type of Household________________________________________________________4623. Evolution of Public Expenditure on Healthcare_______________________________________________4824. Source of Healthcare Expenditure ___________________________________________________________4825.