改革以降低中国的高家庭储蓄

Reforms to Reduce Yizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui, and Ding Hua WP/25/259 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Reforms to Reduce China’s High Household SavingsPrepared byYizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui, and Ding Hua* Authorized for distribution by Sonali Jain-Chandra IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Household savings in China are markedly higher than in peer economies, which have beenchanneled into financing excessive investment. This paper examines the structural and cyclical factorscontributing toChina’selevated household savings. The analysis suggests that low government socialspending in rural areas andresidency (“Hukou”)restrictions in urban areas play a significant role in increasing RECOMMENDED CITATION:Xu, Yizhi,Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui, and Ding Hua (2025). “Reforms to ReduceChina’s High Household Savings”. IMF Working Paper No. 25/259(Washington DC: International Monetary WORKING PAPERS Reforms to Reduce China’s High Prepared byYizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui, and Ding Hua Contents 1.Introduction......................................................................................................................................................3 2.1.Stylized Facts..........................................................................................................................................62.2.Prefecture-Level Analysis........................................................................................................................7 3.Role of Hukou andHukou Reforms.............................................................................................................11 3.1.Institutional Background........................................................................................................................113.2.Household-Level Analysis.....................................................................................................................133.3.Prefecture-Level Event Studies: New-Type Urbanization Plan.............................................................16 4.The Real Estate Market and Household Savings........................................................................................18 4.1.Background and Conceptual Underpinning...........................................................................................184.2.Empirical Analysis and Results.............................................................................................................19 5.Conclusion and Policy Recommendations.................................................................................................21 References.........................................................................................................................................................32 FIGURES 1. Household Savings Rate...................................................................................................................................32. Cross-Country Comparison of Government Social Spending...........................................................................63. Government Social Spending...........................................................................................................................74. Impact on Household Savings Rate Following an Increase in Social Spending...............................................95. Impact on Rural Household Savings Rate in Prefectures with High vs. Low Vulnerability.............................10 TABLES 1. The Impact of Urban Hukou and Urban Pensions on Urban Household Savings Rate..................................142. The Impact of Urban Hukou on Urban Household Savings Rate....................................................................163. Housing Market Wealth and Downpayment Effects on Urban Household Savings........................................20 1.Introduction Highhouseholdsavingsare a structural feature of theChinese economy andfarexceedthe levelsinOECDand most EMDEcountries(Figure 1).The highsavingshavefacilitated theChineseeconomy’s over-relianceondebt-financedinvestmentwhich has led tothe buildup of vulnerabilities(IMF, 2024).Several (Niemeläinen, 2021;Wrightet al., 2024;Gourinchas et al., 2024). In this context,the 2025 Central Government Work Report and the December 2024 Central Economic WorkConference have both identified stimulating private consumption demand as thetoppolicy priority forChina.The authorities have rolled out counter-cyclical fiscalsupport, such as the equipment trade-in and upgrade Against this backdrop, this paperaimsto empirically examinethe contributions oftwokeyfactorsinpotentiallydrivingChi